The risk of Gulf states becoming embroiled in a direct war with Iran has increased after reports that the United Arab Emirates secretly launched a major attack on Iran during the recent conflict. The Wall Street Journal reported that the UAE struck Iran’s Lazan Island just before the 7 April ceasefire, as retaliation for Iranian attacks on its facilities.
Kuwait has also stated that at least four members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were captured attempting to carry out “terrorist attacks” on Kuwaiti-owned Bubiyan Island. The Iranian ambassador to Kuwait was summoned over the incident, and the UAE expressed solidarity with Kuwait in fending off “hostile and terrorist acts”.
If the precarious US-Iran ceasefire collapses, the UAE is likely to become an even clearer target for Tehran. Donald Trump said the ceasefire was “hanging by a thread” due to Iran’s failure to make concessions on its nuclear programme. The Pentagon reported that the cost of the war with Iran has risen to nearly $29bn.
During the earlier fighting, the UAE was disproportionately targeted by Iranian missile and drone strikes, partly due to its severe diplomatic hostility towards Iran. The Wall Street Journal report suggested that French Mirage fighter jets and Chinese Wing Long drones, both used by the UAE, had operated in Iran. The UAE had hinted at wanting to mount reprisal operations beyond defending its oil and port installations.
Divisions among Gulf states have emerged, with Saudi Arabia urging restraint. Former Saudi ambassador Turki al-Faisal warned that entering an all-out war with Iran would lead to devastation, destruction of oil facilities, and disruption of the hajj. The UAE has so far failed to persuade Qatar or Saudi Arabia to do more to counter Iranian attacks or the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE’s anger towards Iran reflects ideological differences, including its willingness to normalise relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords, and a belief that it has been unjustly singled out by Iran due to those links. The US ambassador to Israel confirmed that Israel had sent Iron Dome batteries and personnel to improve UAE defences.
