The twists and turns in the US-Iran crisis are bewildering, but Donald Trump appears to have the cards stacked against him. For those following the saga, the past few days have been a rollercoaster. On Friday, the six-week-old ceasefire seemed doomed as Trump skipped his son's wedding to remain in the White House, reportedly contemplating renewed military strikes on Iran. By Saturday, optimism returned as Trump announced an agreement with Iran would be concluded "shortly." On Sunday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio added hope by promising "good news" soon.
However, Iran's leaders quickly dampened the optimism. Iranian media dismissed Trump's social media post as propaganda, and officials highlighted several remaining points of dispute. As Tehran began revealing its conception of a deal in general terms, the gap with Washington became even more evident.
Conflicting Demands
The Trump administration wants an immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, removal of Iran's entire enriched uranium stockpile, and a ban on enrichment. In contrast, Iran proposes a two-phase approach. Phase one would extend the ceasefire, including Lebanon, for 60 days. The strait would open without tolls, and the US would lift its naval blockade, begin unfreezing Iranian assets, and ease economic sanctions.
Even this first phase faces hurdles. Israel, alarmed by the deal, wants to preserve its freedom of action in Lebanon. Moreover, Washington's insistence on a free strait clashes with Iran's 18 May unveiling of a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to oversee maritime traffic and levy tolls.
Nuclear and Missile Issues
The US and Israel also demand that Iran reduce its ballistic missile arsenal and cease support for Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah (Houthis). Iran has not addressed these points, but Israeli and US hawks will object if Trump concedes. Assuming the strait reopens and sanctions ease, phase two will focus on Iran's nuclear programme. Yet Tehran hasn't specified its limits—a critical issue given Trump's repeated insistence that Iran must not acquire nuclear weapons.
The US demands that Iran's entire enriched uranium stockpile (including 450kg at 60%) be shipped out, which Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly rejected. Downblending under international monitors could be a compromise, but Trump may reject it under fire from hawks. Failure on the nuclear question could unravel the ceasefire.
Optimists vs Pessimists
Optimists see Iran's position as an opening bid, with concessions possible in exchange for US flexibility. Tehran wants war reparations but likely knows Trump will refuse, so it might drop that demand for faster sanctions relief. Trump is under pressure from surging oil prices and a war-weary public, but Iran also needs a deal due to the blockade's economic toll.
Pessimists warn the ceasefire could collapse if Trump resumes war for leverage, or if Israel attacks Hezbollah or Iran. The announcement of deal details, which Trump said would come soon, has been delayed due to persistent disagreements.
Iran May Have the Last Word
Even if all obstacles are overcome, the final terms will likely favour Iran more than the US. Trump could resume military strikes to extract more concessions, but force proved unsuccessful between 28 February and 8 April. Renewed war would further damage the US and global economy, which Trump wants to avoid ahead of midterm elections.
Assuming Trump doesn't back away under pressure, he will be lucky to get terms similar to the 2015 nuclear deal—a poor return on the $29bn spent on a failed war that has roiled the global economy. Rajan Menon is a professor emeritus of international relations at the City College of New York and a senior research scholar at Columbia University's Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies. His co-author, Daniel R DePetris, is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist at the Chicago Tribune.
