Myanmar's military is pressing ahead with its first election since the 2021 coup, despite widespread condemnation. Analysts say China's support has been a decisive factor in the junta's ability to regain momentum in a five-year civil war.
Beijing has used border closures to pressure ethnic armed groups in northern Myanmar into agreeing ceasefires and returning territory to the military. It has also stepped up diplomatic support and continued weapon transfers, including drone technology, according to Jason Tower of the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime.
China has introduced the junta to platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, boosting its international standing, said Tower. However, Beijing's approach has shifted: it initially reacted coolly to the coup but grew frustrated by the ensuing economic chaos and the rise of organised crime.
In late 2023, China tacitly approved an offensive by ethnic armed groups against the junta, angered by scam compounds near the border. But when those groups began seizing large territories, China 'corrected course', using border closures to push them back, said Morgan Michaels of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
China's priority is stability, especially for its infrastructure investments such as a planned corridor to the Indian Ocean. It has thrown its weight behind the election, which UN experts call a sham, and will send observers alongside Russia and Vietnam. The vote is dominated by the military's proxy party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party.
