The Guardian has issued a strong editorial warning against any potential shift in US policy on Taiwan during Donald Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing. The newspaper argues that China's leadership, particularly President Xi Jinping, sees an opportunity to persuade the US president to water down support for the self-governed island in exchange for trade deals or cooperation on Iran.
China's Strategic Opportunity
China's foreign minister, Wang Yi, explicitly linked the Taiwan issue to broader bilateral cooperation in a recent call with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Beijing would welcome a softening of the US position, including a potential pullback on arms sales after an $11 billion package was announced late last year. Taiwan has been self-governed since the end of China's civil war in 1949 and has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party.
Xi Jinping's Unification Ambitions
President Xi has made unification a central part of his legacy. Three years ago, US intelligence assessed that he had told the People's Liberation Army to be ready for an invasion by 2027. However, Beijing would prefer to achieve its goal without force. Even a blockade, simulated in intensive military drills in December, would come at a hefty economic price and could escalate quickly.
China could instead seek to build military and economic might while increasing intimidation until the US would not risk intervention or Taiwan felt it had no choice. Beijing hopes that even a small shift in US rhetoric this month might help make unification seem inevitable to Taiwan.
Military and Political Calculations
Analysts believe China is unlikely to take a military path in the next couple of years. Some think it may see a relatively short window of opportunity: another US president might be stauncher on Taiwan, the current administration has pivoted away from Asia, is tied up in the Middle East, and is burning through munitions. Meanwhile, Taiwan's surge in defence spending has yet to kick in.
However, Trump is utterly unpredictable. The Iran situation shows that great powers can do as they will, but also that they can regret it. Beijing appears convinced that the US is in decline while its own power grows, though its armed forces are currently roiled by purges at the top.
Taiwan's Political Landscape
With a 2028 presidential election due in Taiwan and the two main opposition parties joining forces for local polls this year, China sees an improving political outlook. Any lingering belief that Taiwan's people might actively embrace a 'one country, two systems' formula was killed off by Beijing's evisceration of Hong Kong's freedoms. China's intimidation tactics have increased suspicion; around two-thirds of the population see China as a major threat. The proportion identifying as 'Taiwanese-only' has more than tripled to 63% since 1992. However, many still see improving relations with China as the pragmatic choice.
Recent Diplomatic Moves
Last month, Xi hosted Cheng Li-wun, leader of Taiwan's Kuomintang opposition party, at the first such meeting in a decade. Cheng's party advocates closer ties to Beijing and has blocked a $40 billion special defence budget put forward by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. Beijing proffered economic carrots while increasingly using the stick. Taiwan's president, Lai Ching-te, visited Eswatini, one of its few remaining diplomatic allies, this weekend, but the trip was previously aborted after other states revoked overflight permits.
The Stakes for the US
A vibrant democracy deserves continued support. Trump's mixed messages might encourage China to believe it can unify Taiwan without military force, but could also lead to further escalatory steps by Beijing. That raises the risks of missteps or accidents, which are not in anyone's interests. The US too would benefit from shoring up the status quo.
