Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper will warn on Tuesday that the world is "sleepwalking into a global food crisis" as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz disrupts fertiliser supplies, potentially leaving tens of millions hungry.
In a speech at the Global Partnerships Conference in London, Cooper is expected to highlight that the blockade is occurring at a critical time for global agriculture, with fertiliser needing to flow through the strait within weeks to avert a catastrophe.
Markets are already pricing in weaker harvests, and the World Food Programme estimates that 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity if the conflict does not end by mid-year.
Cooper is set to say: "We cannot risk tens of millions of people going hungry because one country has hijacked an international shipping lane. Iran's continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz while the agriculture clock is ticking shows why we need urgent global pressure to get the strait reopened, fertiliser and fuel moving and ease the cost of living pressures."
The Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, has been effectively closed since the US and Israel launched their campaign against Iran at the end of February. Tehran's blockade has sent oil prices soaring and shut off access to some of the world's largest fertiliser factories, threatening to push food prices higher.
Developing countries, less able to absorb higher food costs, are particularly vulnerable. The Foreign Office warned that shipments of "critical emergency aid" would be needed if fertiliser supplies do not resume soon.
Cooper will address the Global Partnerships Conference, which aims to outline a new development approach amid cuts to overseas aid budgets. Last year, the UK reduced its aid spending target to 0.3% of GDP, while the US administration under Donald Trump effectively dismantled the US aid agency.
The summit, co-hosted by the UK and South Africa, is expected to promote a "partnership" model based on technical advice rather than cash payments.
Ahead of the event, development minister Baroness Jenny Chapman said: "Countries want to have more control, move beyond aid, attract investment, strengthen their own health and education systems, and take charge of their own futures. Traditional development finance alone cannot meet that call, indeed it never could. Nor can it respond to the scale of today's challenges. We need to bring new ideas and a broader coalition of partners to the table."
