The Green Party in Wales is positioning itself as a potential kingmaker in the upcoming Senedd elections, with polls suggesting Plaid Cymru's Rhun ap Iorwerth could become the next first minister, ending nearly 30 years of Labour dominance. The Greens, who have never held a Senedd seat, are now seen as a viable coalition partner for Plaid Cymru, which may need support to form a government.
At a packed campaign event in Cardiff's Canton neighbourhood, Green Party co-leader Zack Polanski expressed confidence, telling supporters: 'I'm really excited to see those results roll in.' The party has seen a surge in membership, tripling to 222,000 in England and Wales, and recent polls have forecast the Greens winning up to 10 seats in the 60-member Senedd.
Anthony Slaughter, leader of the Welsh Greens, emphasised the party's potential influence: 'We could be kingmakers.' As a junior partner in a Plaid Cymru government, the Greens would push for bolder policies on energy, climate, housing, rent controls, and council tax. The party's manifesto, described by the Institute for Fiscal Studies as an 'opening gambit for negotiations,' includes replacing council tax and business rates with a land value tax.
Campaigning in working-class Grangetown, Slaughter found many disillusioned former Labour voters turning to the Greens. One resident said they did not think Plaid Cymru's platform was progressive enough. The Greens are expected to win seats in Cardiff's new superconstituencies and are competitive in Ceredigion Penfro and Brycheiniog Tawe Nedd.
Under Wales's new proportional voting system, six members are elected per constituency, and the fight for the last seats could come down to a battle between the Greens and Reform UK. Tessa Marshall, a Green candidate, urged voters: 'Voting Green won't let Reform in. We can stop them from being the largest party.'
Winning five seats would grant the Greens formal Senedd group status, unlocking significant public funding and transforming the party from a grassroots movement into a mainstay in Welsh politics. With Plaid Cymru likely to need coalition partners, the Greens are poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the next Welsh government.
