Cardiff Council is bracing for a significant political upheaval following the local elections on 7 May, with Labour expected to suffer historic losses. Data analysed by the Guardian indicates Labour's vote share could plummet to record lows across England, Wales, and Scotland, with Reform, the Greens, and nationalist parties making substantial gains.
In Wales, Labour's dominance in the Senedd, which it has held since 1999, is under threat. Polling suggests Labour's vote share in Wales could halve, pushing the party into third place behind Reform and Plaid Cymru. This would mark a dramatic shift in Welsh politics, with Cardiff Council likely to see a redistribution of seats.
Stephen Fisher, a professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, estimates Labour could lose 1,900 councillors nationwide, including many in Cardiff. This would represent 74% of the seats the party currently holds that are up for re-election. Reform is projected to gain 2,260 councillors, while the Greens and Liberal Democrats could add 450 and 200 respectively.
The Conservatives are also expected to suffer losses, with a net reduction of 1,010 councillors. This reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction with the two main parties. Fisher noted that Reform's gains last year were record-breaking, and they are poised to perform even better this year.
The potential scale of Labour's defeat could reignite leadership challenges against Keir Starmer, who faces pressure over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador. While some Labour ministers downplay the risk, the combination of electoral losses and the Mandelson controversy has intensified scrutiny on Starmer's future.
