The partial evacuation of warplanes from RAF Mildenhall because of an apparent threat from Iran has huge implications for the UK. This is the second base the US has evacuated in just a few months, with US heavy bombers based at RAF Fairford leaving shortly after a threat emerged in September.
US Presence in the UK
Since World War II, Britain has enjoyed a security dividend with the varying numbers of US personnel, special forces and warplanes based here. Some 12,000 US personnel are based in the UK, a presence that solidifies the so-called but somewhat over-egged special relationship between Britain and the US.
It gives us credibility on the world stage and, crucially, some kind of leverage against aggression from Russia and now Iran. Any decrease or downgrading of the US military presence in the UK is probably a negative in terms of how Britain is judged by the rest of the world.
Potential Reasons for the Move
Russia’s Vladimir Putin in particular would be pleased to see the US move its military out of the UK, just for the optics - he would regard that as the erosion of the UK’s links to the US. One aspect of this that is strange is that some of the Mildenhall air assets may have been moved to Scotland, and most to Europe, it is believed.
If there is a credible threat it is likely to be low-level, the possible hiring of criminal or sympathetic gangs or individuals by Iran to act out sabotage. Or the move could be an act of caution to avoid being an obvious target for a sabotage attack because American intelligence believes Iran wants to initiate one. It may be that the threat is perceived without an actual plot being underway and that would be a matter being investigated by MI5 and possibly the FBI and military intelligence.
Value and Strategic Implications
These huge tankers are worth £100 million and the total value taken out of harm’s way could amount to at least £1 billion, taking in the bombers that left RAF Fairford. There is another, more conspiratorial possibility relating to US President Donald Trump saying there will be no attack on Iran despite the ratcheting up of military hardware in the Middle East.
It is thought that within weeks there will be three US aircraft carrier strike groups in the region and that does not represent a de-escalation. And we cannot take seriously claims by Trump that he will not order a major attack. All credibility in his statements about not attacking have been shot to pieces by previous claims he has gone back on, in particular when it comes to Iran.
So the US military may have moved the planes in preparation for a larger-scale operation against Iran and he wants to maintain an element of surprise. It is possible the calculation will be that these planes can be moved up towards the Middle East for such an escalation, in readiness to re-fuel US fighters. These enormous tankers are cumbersome and make big targets on the ground whereas the US F15 fighter squadrons at Mildenhall can be moved at very little notice.
So it could be there is a credible or a perceived threat to the planes and that is why they have been moved or there could be a building up of US military towards Iran. Or it could be both. For the time being sources are not suggesting there is a credible threat from Iran, but that does not mean there is not a plot underway. Low-level crooks, whilst lacking in sophistication and who are easily manipulated by the promise of money, may leave little trace or footprint of communications with Iran. And our intelligence agencies will be working flat out to try and detect any communications with pro-Iranian regime groups within the UK.
