Keir Starmer used one of his final acts as Prime Minister to unveil the long-delayed Defence Investment Plan (DIP), rushing it out ahead of next week's NATO summit in Ankara to claim a legacy before successor Andy Burnham takes credit. The plan raises defence spending by £15bn over four years, taking the budget to almost £80bn a year by 2030. Starmer called it the biggest sustained increase since the 1980s.
Plan Falls Short of Military Needs
The Ministry of Defence, which runs the armed forces, requested £28bn. Starmer gave roughly half. Defence Secretary John Healey resigned earlier this month rather than endorse a smaller version, warning it fell well short of what the country needs at a dangerous time. Armed Forces Minister Al Carns also walked out. Despite two defence team resignations, Starmer pressed ahead weeks before handing No. 10 to Burnham.
General Sir Richard Barrons, who co-wrote the Government's defence review, said the plan prepares Britain by 2035 for a fight that might come as early as 2030. Other NATO countries are moving faster: Germany heads for 3.7% of GDP by 2030, Sweden for 3.5%. Britain will manage 2.7%, placing it mid-table while Russia menaces Europe and Donald Trump reiterates expectations for allies to hit 5%.
Unfunded Shortfall Creates Crisis
Nearly a third of Starmer's plan isn't funded. The Treasury admitted £4.7bn hasn't been found, so Burnham must conjure that money in his first Budget this autumn, with £1.8bn due in the coming financial year. One of Burnham's allies called it an "unexploded bomb". The Tories called it a "delayed-action poison pill". Starmer ruled out borrowing or defence bonds, so the money is scraped from cancelled road schemes and raided energy budgets the energy department hasn't worked out yet. Some £9bn earmarked for military housing has slipped into the 2030s to keep drone announcements looking shiny.
Burnham Inherits a Mess
Burnham has no fiscal room to manoeuvre and no mandate, having been chosen by his party rather than the country. His top team was cobbled together in weeks. He gave a speech at a museum in Manchester and said almost nothing about where he stands on defence. His answer to challenges is to devolve or find "common ground". Burnham's allies have let it be known he'll accept the plan as it stands, fearing rocking the boat might spook the defence sector. So the man who promised a new kind of politics starts by changing nothing.
We are not keeping up with our friends or enemies. The budget is barely half of what's needed, with a £4.7bn shortfall due within months and no date for reaching 3% of GDP. Starmer passed the whole thing to Burnham and called it a "solid platform". A more honest word would be "mess".
