Russia could launch an attack on a NATO member state after the war in Ukraine concludes, the Dutch Defence Ministry has warned. In its latest annual defence policy strategy document, the ministry described Europe as being in a "grey area" between war and peace, stating that Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation with the continent. The worst-case scenario outlined involves a limited Russian military operation against a NATO member following the end of hostilities in Ukraine.
Netherlands Boosts Defence Spending
The Dutch government plans a phased investment of an additional €20 billion (£17.2 billion) in defence by 2035. This will enable the Netherlands to meet NATO's target of spending 3.5% of GDP on defence, according to European Pravda. The document also highlighted that the Ukraine war has demonstrated that most battlefield casualties now result from drone strikes. Consequently, the Ministry of Defence intends to shift towards unmanned systems, aiming for "more than half of operational outcomes to be achieved using unmanned systems" within the next five years.
Allied Warnings of Russian Provocations
Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated he believes Russia could stage a "false flag operation" to justify an attack on a NATO member state. Latvia's intelligence service has also warned that Russia is preparing possible provocations against the Baltic states or Poland, including drone attacks and other hybrid actions, to force NATO countries to stop supporting Ukraine.
Russia's foreign ministry, meanwhile, has accused NATO of preparing to develop weapons with Ukraine that could be used to strike Russian air bases, including those deep inside Russian territory. Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed the plans involve developing weapons capable of conducting large-scale strikes and putting Russian air bases across Russia out of operation for extended periods. "Through their recklessly aggressive actions, the Ukraine-NATO partnership is giving the Russian military additional grounds to pay increased attention to any facilities involved in the development and production of weapons used against our country," Zakharova said, according to Ukrainska Pravda. She added, "That is the basis on which we will assess both the current situation and the prospects for its further escalation. The Kyiv regime is intensifying its attempts to realise its long-standing ambition of dragging NATO into a direct armed conflict with Russia, in the vain hope of saving its hopeless position on the battlefield, which clearly also belongs in the realm of irrational fantasies."
Military Situation in Ukraine
The momentum has shifted against Moscow in its war in Ukraine in recent months. While Russia has occupied nearly 19.5% of Ukrainian territory, its current offensive has largely stalled. Ukrainian long-range drones have successfully struck deep inside Russia, setting fire to vital oil refineries in St Petersburg and Moscow, triggering a severe domestic fuel shortage.
