Less than a month after hailing a ceasefire, Donald Trump has resumed military strikes against Iran, a move that analysts say could prolong the war and damage Republican prospects in the November midterm elections. The president ordered attacks on Iranian military and infrastructure targets after declaring the memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed at Versailles on 17 June dead. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes against US allies in the Gulf.
The renewed hostilities come despite growing voter discontent over the war, particularly its inflationary impact on fuel and living costs. Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, described the escalation as “a total loser” for Republicans, suggesting Trump appears indifferent to electoral consequences. “It’s evidence that Trump doesn’t really care about the midterms,” he said.
At the centre of the conflict is the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carried 20% of global energy exports before the war began. Iran closed the strait in response to US and Israeli attacks, driving up oil prices. The MoU aimed to reopen it in exchange for sanctions relief, but ambiguities over shipping lanes—and a US decision to use a route off Oman’s coast—led to Iranian fire on commercial vessels.
Analysts warn that the escalation could lead to a land invasion of Iran, risking a prolonged “forever war.” Nate Swanson, a former State Department adviser, said the escalation has already exceeded his expectations and is likely to fail. Vali Nasr of Johns Hopkins argued the MoU’s collapse was deliberate, citing Trump’s personal vendetta against Iran.”
