A stark analysis from West Point's Modern War Institute has issued a grave warning: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is creating a "paralyzing, real-time problem" for the US defence industrial base. This strategic chokepoint's blockade is severely hampering the ability to manufacture new munitions and repair damaged defence equipment, with implications that could extend far beyond the current Middle East conflict.
The Sulphur Shock and Its Cascading Effects
At the heart of this crisis is sulphur, a vital upstream input for extracting critical minerals like copper and cobalt. The report details a "near total" disruption of seaborne trade in sulphur through the strait, which accounts for half of global shipments. Prices have spiked nearly 25% since the war began, with a staggering 165% year-on-year rise. Sulphur is primarily a byproduct of refining crude oil, with the Middle East producing about 24% of the world's supply.
From Minerals to Military Readiness
These minerals are indispensable for modern warfare, used in everything from microprocessors and jet engines to drone batteries. According to the analysis, they "dictate how fast things can be built and scaled under the pressure of an ongoing war." The authors emphasise that the effects of such a sudden supply shock on US defence readiness have never been adequately modelled, leaving the military in uncharted territory.
One of the report's authors, USAF Lieutenant Colonel Jahara "Franky" Matisek, a nonresident fellow at the US Naval War College, described the situation as a "cascading issue." In a telephone conversation with the Guardian, he warned that a knock-on effect could see costs double or more to replace weapons, as mineral demand skyrockets. Matisek highlighted the precarious position: "Markets are not going to be able to provide the amount of minerals that are needed to replace all these radars that have been destroyed and all these munitions that have to be replaced."
Copper: A Strategic Material Under Threat
The report underscores copper's critical role, designating it a strategic material embedded in transformers, motors, and communications hardware essential for base operations and defence factories. Specific estimates reveal the scale: replacing two major US radars destroyed in Bahrain and Qatar alone will require over thirty thousand kilograms of copper, with thousands more needed for damaged equipment in Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
The authors starkly conclude: "The current sulfur shock is becoming a copper problem, and that copper problem risks quickly becoming a readiness and resilience problem." They label this a "prelogistical crisis" that previous military planning had treated as mere "background noise," now exposing vulnerabilities in supply chain transparency.
Opacity in Defence Supply Chains
A separate February analysis co-written by Matisek found that only 6% of US defence contractors have fully transparent supply chains. The newer report argues this opacity has led to a military effort constrained by "upstream conditions it cannot control," with the joint force discovering its combat endurance is capped by the invisible industrial foundations needed for replenishment.
Matisek pointed to dependence on large defence contractors, whose proprietary information shields supply chain details. "All the big prime defence industrial base companies, this is all proprietary information. They don't want anyone knowing how many minerals they're buying to make a missile," he said. He stressed the strategic imperative: "From a strategic sort or great power competition perspective, we can't actually allow them to do that any more because we actually need to know this."
He added that beyond a few steps in long subcontractor chains, "nobody actually knows who's providing these metals, these minerals, the parts. And it just becomes a maze."
Broader Implications and Future Risks
Beyond copper, sulphur is crucial for producing sulphuric acid, the world's most produced industrial chemical, used to extract minerals from low-grade ores. It is also a key ingredient in explosives for US military operations. Matisek noted only two companies manufacture these high explosives, and a lack of production orders amid the sulphur crunch is "highly problematic."
The report warns of downstream effects on agriculture and food supplies, as sulphur is used in artificial fertilisers, potentially impacting low-income countries. However, the immediate focus remains on defence, with the authors calling for greater supply chain visibility and strategic planning to mitigate what they describe as an unprecedented threat to US military resilience.
The Guardian reached out to the US Department of Defense for comment, highlighting the urgency of addressing these supply chain vulnerabilities as the conflict continues.
