Historian and geopolitical strategist Dr Sarah Paine has warned that the fall of one European country would trigger World War Three, describing the potential outcome as "obscene." Speaking on the Diary of a CEO podcast, she said the world will enter World War Three "if we continue in the current direction of travel."
Putin's next move under scrutiny
Heightened global tensions, governments issuing stockpiling advice, and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war have sparked fears over another world war. Dr Paine said the world should be very worried about what Russian President Vladimir Putin does next.
US President Donald Trump shows no signs of backing down in his Iran conflict, while the Russia-Ukraine war continues as it approaches five years of fighting. The world is in a precarious position with Trump seemingly starting to side with Putin, as Trump paused massive tariffs on Russian goods days after launching a scathing attack on Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Invasion of Poland and NATO's Article 5
Steven Bartlett, who presents Diary of a CEO, asked whether Putin invading Poland would trigger World War Three. Dr Paine agreed that it would, before offering an "obscene" prognosis about what this might look like.
She said: "I have no idea (what World War Three would look like). But you can get on a nice computer program, pick your mega tonnage of a nuclear weapon and you can put it over a city of your choice and see how many people die. It's obscene."
She added: "And that's the problem with having these dark personalities running countries like Putin. He doesn't care how many people he kills."
Evidence of aggression toward NATO
Earlier this year, the US suggested that Putin is planning to invade Poland to test NATO's resolve, with soldiers potentially crossing the border from Belarus or Russian territory Kaliningrad. Any invasion of Poland would trigger NATO's Article 5, which states that an armed attack against one member state is considered an attack against all its members.
Dr Paine pointed to Russian drones being shot down over another NATO country, Romania, as evidence of how far Putin will push his aggression. She said: "When he is threatening NATO countries, he has been violating airspace in the last few days, sending drones into the territorial waters of Romania, and they were shot down. At some point, you're into Article 5 territory. Europeans don't want to do it because it will be an ever-loving mess."
She added: "Article 5 being that you all go to war together. While the generation who remembered World War Two while they lived, they were really careful not to trigger that. And that's not true of who we've got now."
It comes after Gene Sticco, a national security specialist and former Air Force nuclear protection expert, highlighted three UK towns and cities Brits should avoid if World War Three breaks out. He said: "Certainly anywhere near the US and NATO facilities. Otherwise, the key military centres - Telford, Plymouth, South Yorkshire, and the South East and South West of England."
When asked to identify the precise city or town in Britain he believed an adversary would most probably target if launching an attack, he answered: "Naval centres - this is the UK's strength and lifeline. Strike at Plymouth and Barrow-in-Furness."
