Experts have weighed in on whether hackers could trigger a full-scale nuclear conflict between Russia and the West. Authorities in Ukraine and Moscow reported that their emergency alert mobile apps were targeted by cyberattacks, with users in Ukraine receiving false warnings of an imminent nuclear threat.
Expert Verdict on Cyber-Triggered Nuclear War
Dr. Maxim Starchak, an independent expert on Russian nuclear policy, strategic weapons and defence industry and fellow at the Centre for International and Defence Policy of the Queen's University in Canada, told the Express: "The risks exist, but they are minimal. Cyber intrusion into nuclear command and control systems is entirely conceivable."
He explained that early-warning systems could be manipulated to generate false signals of an imminent attack. "With very little time available for decision-making, a false alarm from a compromised system could theoretically prompt the launch of missiles before incoming enemy warheads reach their targets," he said. "The risk of such a scenario increases significantly during periods of acute conflict escalation."
Decision-Making Based on Multiple Sources
Dr. Starchak noted that the decision to launch a retaliatory strike is not based on data from a single subsystem. "In Russia, for example, radar systems would be a particularly important source of information," he said. "If they detected no incoming missiles, there would be no retaliatory strike."
He added: "Moreover, the final decision rests with a country's political leadership, which may have its own reasons for refraining from an immediate retaliatory strike until there is absolute certainty that the country has been attacked. There must also be complete confidence about who carried out the attack and whether it is part of a wider nuclear attack being prepared."
Potential for Devastating Cyber Attack
Security expert Professor Anthony Glees suggested Russia could deploy a "devastating cyber attack to take out our critical national cyber infrastructure", which could be "the first stage of what would ultimately be a nuclear attack on a NATO country, even on the UK".
Prof. Glees added: "Our nuclear weapons doctrine is a 'no first strike' policy, meaning that we would only use our nuclear arsenal to respond to a nuclear attack from Russia (or any other hostile nation). We believe Russia in particular understands this. The danger of course is that Russia might feel safe in launching a cyber attack on us which would replicate many of the effects that a nuclear strike on us with 'theatre' nukes would achieve."
He stipulated this would involve smaller "theatre" weapons rather than "strategic" ICBMs, leading to the firing of Trident nuclear-tipped weapons from Vanguard submarines and an attack by air from the French force de frappe nuclear planes.
NATO Response and Article Five
Prof. Glees said: "NATO nations would be disabled by such a cyber attack were it to endure for a few days; lasting for a week or two would lead to major upheaval in many of them and possible capitulation. We are certain that Putin is not suicidal and would not want to use nukes against any NAO member. However, there is more than one way to skin a cat and if Putin can achieve his objective safely, he will do so. His gain would be our peril."
He said the question is how NATO should respond to non-nuclear attacks as of today. "The answer ought to be 'we will fight like with like', so a cyber attack on us will be met with a massive cyber attack on them," Prof. Glees said. He suggested this would involve not only turning off the lights in Moscow and St Petersburg, but disabling "as much of Russia's critical national cyber structure as possible".
"That's the only way to teach Putin a lesson that he has been asking for so very long," Prof. Glees added. "The UK should do precisely this with a concentrated and hefty cyber assault on Russia," he added. "It really is time for us to take off our kid gloves and talk turkey with Putin. We should not have attended that G20 in Miami with Lavrov, it gave entirely the wrong signals to Russia."
Prof. Glees said the Kremlin tried to evade responsibility for cyber attacks by saying it has nothing to do with Russia. "They're the work of cyber attackers who could be anywhere in the world," he warned. "We should do the same, of course, deny any responsibility for cyber-punching Russia and say we've no idea who is to blame. With a smile on our face."
He said these are "days of great danger to all European NATO states", but that Article Five needs to be properly understood. "It does not mean that an armed attack on one NATO state will automatically lead to an armed attack on the perp by all NATO states," he added. "NATO allies are free to choose what they regard as the appropriate response, and in the case of Trump's America an 'appropriate response' might mean asking Witkoff and Kushner to go to Moscow and chat about real estate possibilities. Again, our danger, Putin's opportunity."
