Ukraine has reinforced its northern border with anti-tank ditches, concrete obstacles, and barbed wire amid a sharp increase in Russian spy drones entering from Belarusian airspace since January. Ukrainian officials report a roughly 20% rise in drone sightings, coinciding with Russia constructing five new drone bases near its border with Belarus.
Kyiv is concerned that Moscow is drawing Belarus deeper into the war, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy noting “unusual activity” on the border. Russia and Belarus recently accused Ukraine of a deadly drone strike on a bus carrying Belarusian schoolchildren in Bryansk, a claim Ukraine’s military dismissed as false.
Belarus has expanded infrastructure to support Russian operations, including logistics routes and training grounds, as well as communications and surveillance for drone strikes. However, officials say there is no evidence of large troop formations for a repeat of the 2022 invasion.
Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s “actions today are different from 2022,” suggesting he is “preparing for war.” Others note increased pro-Russian propaganda in Belarus, with political scientist Maksym Pleshko stating Lukashenko is trying to justify greater involvement to his domestic audience.
Some experts are sceptical Lukashenko would risk using Belarusian troops, citing warnings from Ukraine’s unmanned forces commander Robert Brovdi that Kyiv has identified around 500 targets in Belarus to hit if Minsk becomes more directly involved. There is broad agreement that Moscow may use Belarus to threaten widening the conflict geographically.
