It is believed that any UK bid to rejoin the EU would be seriously entertained, at least, given today’s geostrategic realities. Two prominent Labour figures—Wes Streeting, who resigned as health secretary and is a contender for the party leadership, and Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester—have reignited debate by describing Brexit as a “catastrophic mistake” and suggesting a long-term case for rejoining the bloc.
Current State of UK-EU Relations
After the 2024 election, Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised a “reset” of ties with Europe, aiming to secure economic deals. A year later, a UK-EU summit produced an agreement that Starmer claimed gave “unprecedented access to the EU market.” However, progress has been limited. The UK rejoined the Horizon science programme and will rejoin Erasmus+ from 2027, but talks on a youth mobility scheme are stalled over tuition fees for EU students. Integration into Europe’s electricity market and defence procurement have also faced hurdles due to financial disagreements.
Obstacles to Closer Ties
The main barriers are Starmer’s red lines: no return to the customs union, single market, or freedom of movement. The EU insists that closer ties require alignment with its rules. Any move toward dynamic alignment has been criticized by Reform UK and the Conservatives as “undoing Brexit by the back door.” Economists agree that sectoral mini-deals will not offset the estimated 6%-8% GDP loss from Brexit. Starmer has called for a “bigger response,” but this would require easing those red lines.
How Would the EU Respond?
With Russia’s war in Ukraine and a shaken UK-US relationship, analysts say both sides would benefit from a fundamental rethink. A YouGov poll found 63% of Britons want closer ties, and 55% support rejoining—a move the EU would welcome, but on standard terms. Poland’s foreign minister noted the UK would not get previous opt-outs or its rebate, and might need to join the euro. European leaders would also worry about a future Reform UK government undoing any deal, potentially demanding penalty clauses. Nevertheless, the current geopolitical landscape means a UK bid to rejoin would be taken seriously.
