As the dust settles on the war with Iran, President Donald Trump's bellicose claims about his conflict do not match reality. The operation has cost billions and is unlikely to be as effective as the Obama-era nuclear accord.
The Cost of Conflict
Trump's war with Iran, dubbed Operation Epic Fury, has vandalized rules on war-planning, negotiation, global diplomacy, and geopolitics. It has cost the world economy an estimated £1 trillion, with Britain alone facing £4 billion in fuel price hikes that will burden drivers for months. Thousands have been killed, and tens of thousands injured, primarily in Iran and Lebanon, but also in Iraq, Israel, and the Gulf States.
Broken Trust
The conflict has shattered trust in American diplomacy after Trump repeatedly vowed not to attack and then reneged. He claimed the war was ending multiple times and promised a 'great deal,' neither of which materialized until now. The US and Iran have agreed to an 'immediate and permanent' end to military operations via a memorandum of understanding (MOU) mediated by Pakistan.
The MOU Details
The MOU includes plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease sanctions, and begin nuclear negotiations. However, this is no victory: Trump's war closed the Strait, and sanctions were already crippling Iran's economy. The human cost, future risks, and weakening of the US as an ally are immeasurable.
Trump's Missteps
Trump escalated a hyper-sensitive situation, fell for Israeli manipulations about easily toppling Iran's leadership, and then continued his social media rants. His hatred of Barack Obama's 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) led him to tear it up, claiming it paved the way for Iranian nuclear weapons, despite Iran enriching uranium only to 20% (far below the 90% needed for weapons). The JCPOA allowed intrusive oversight, which the new MOU lacks.
Nuclear Promises
Both sides agree Iran will not produce or acquire nuclear weapons—a promise Tehran has made for decades. Iran claims it will freeze nuclear activity and refrain from further enrichment, pending a final agreement. But Trump has incorrectly stated Tehran was close to a nuclear weapon, implying highly enriched uranium exists.
Unresolved Issues
Trump claimed he would bring peace to Lebanon, but Israel attacked Beirut recently and vows to remain there, despite the MOU. The settlement hinges on Iran's demand to stop attacks on Hezbollah, a proxy that remains under pressure from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US must separate Hezbollah from Iran and secure nuclear oversight, at least matching the JCPOA.
Demands and Reparations
Iran demands at least £10 billion in unfrozen assets and a full US withdrawal. It also seeks £223.5 billion in war reparations, which Trump dismisses as fake news. Experts warn that any money paid could end up with proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. The MOU merely brings Iran back to the nuclear table, but it is unlikely to achieve the oversight of Obama's JCPOA.
