Iceland’s foreign minister, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, has expressed deep concern that the country could experience a “Brexit moment” in its upcoming referendum on European Union accession talks. She accused opponents of fearmongering and spreading misinformation, drawing parallels to the tactics used by Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party during the Brexit campaign.
Referendum Set for August
With just over three months to go until Iceland votes on whether to continue accession negotiations with the EU, the outcome is being closely monitored by Washington, Moscow, and Brussels. The referendum, scheduled for August 29, was announced by the coalition government—comprising the Social Democratic Alliance, the People’s Party, and Þorgerður’s centre-right Liberal Reform Party—earlier than previously expected.
Threats to International Order
Þorgerður highlighted that the decision to hold the referendum early was partly motivated by threats from the United States, a longtime ally of Iceland, to forcibly acquire Greenland. “The international order that underpinned our security and prosperity for decades is under serious pressure,” she said, adding that old alliances are being tested and trade used as a political weapon. However, she insisted that Iceland’s relationship with the US remains strong and that EU membership would not contradict it.
Misinformation and Foreign Interference
The foreign minister accused individuals and groups both inside and outside Iceland of “fearmongering” and using rhetoric “from the playbook of Nigel Farage and Reform.” She warned that the referendum could be a target for Russia and other actors seeking to negatively influence public debate. “I am fearing that we will face a Brexit moment,” she stated, citing the false claims made by Brexiteers about the UK’s payments to the EU.
Þorgerðu urged Icelandic voters to make up their own minds and be cautious about their sources. She noted that some political parties are spreading misinformation similar to that seen before the UK’s Brexit vote. A spokesperson for Reform UK denied any connection to Iceland, stating, “Reform UK has no connection to Iceland. We wish them well in staying outside of the EU.”
Tight Contest Ahead
Opinion polls indicate a close race. According to a recent survey for the foreign ministry, 42% of Icelanders support reopening accession talks, while 39% oppose it. The referendum will ask voters whether the government should resume negotiations with the EU, not whether to join outright. If approved, talks will resume, and a second referendum will be held on the final deal.
Key Issues at Stake
Advocates of EU membership emphasize international security and deeper European integration, while opponents warn of risks to Iceland’s fishing industry, agriculture, and sovereignty. Fishing, a major export and a cornerstone of Icelandic culture, is a particularly sensitive topic. Þorgerður appealed to voters to be vigilant about disinformation, especially as AI-generated content becomes more prevalent.
Warnings from Leaders and Experts
Prime Minister Kristrún Frostadóttir has warned that foreign influence in the referendum “will not be tolerated, whether from the European Union, China, Russia or the United States.” President Halla Tómasdóttir cautioned about the dangers of AI, which can produce misleading content that appears credible. Hafsteinn Einarsson, an associate professor at the University of Iceland specializing in AI, expressed concern that the country is ill-equipped to inform the public effectively. He noted that AI models often answer questions using unreliable sources, and people may trust AI-generated answers without verifying them.
