Spare a thought for the voters of Makerfield, who on Thursday week may decide who runs the country. A by-election triggered for the sole purpose of lining up a spot on the green benches for Andy Burnham has fast become the most consequential ballot in Britain.
Burnham's Ambition
Andy would very much like to be Prime Minister. Beneath the cheesy 'I'm just like you lad' daddery of his social media is a man glistening with ambition and eager to get started. You might therefore expect him to relish questions about how he would govern. He does not.
He has repeatedly declined this newspaper's requests for an interview, and when we asked him about Brexit - in a seat that voted firmly to leave - he simply jogged off. A man who wishes to lead this great country might consider it reasonable that this county is entitled to ask uncomfortable questions he'd rather not answer.
Reform's Strategy Shift
Eager to stop him in his tracks, Reform have fielded a hyperlocal candidate, a change in strategy from the last by-election where they opted for a TV star. Yet no sooner had Rob Kenyon got his feet on the ground and social media posts dug up by political rivals had become a rod for his own back. One local reporter tells me they have yet to meet a single woman in the constituency willing to back the party.
Into this ever-yawning gap steps Restore, Rupert Lowe's splinter outfit, running a local businesswoman and cheerfully outmanoeuvring Reform on its own right flank. Nigel Farage bullishly insists he's not worried. The polls, which show Restore quietly peeling off his supporters, suggest he should be.
Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate, Michael Winstanley, is pressing on with boundless optimism despite polling at 2 per cent. He shares a surname with several local streets, libraries and a community center. His team are lapping up the irony of Reform UK complaining about someone splitting the Right.
Unlikely Outcome
Yet the likeliest outcome is stranger still. Mr Burnham may win not because his rivals divide, but because Makerfield wants Sir Keir Starmer gone, and Mr Burnham is the man who can deliver it. A vote to remove a Labour Prime Minister, cast for a Labour candidate. What a bizarre election indeed.
