Former defence minister Tobias Ellwood has warned that the West is sliding into World War 3 through proxy conflicts, grey-zone warfare, and global fragmentation. In an exclusive interview with Express.co.uk, Ellwood described the current trajectory as leading into a much darker chapter, with multiple flashpoints over which nobody is in full control.
'To Some Degree, There Is Inevitability'
Asked whether a major international clash is inevitable, Ellwood said: 'To some degree, there is. The trajectory that we're currently on takes us into a much darker chapter, and it isn't just a clash between the giants, America and China. There are many facets to escalation – flashpoints over which nobody is in full control.' He added that a clash in space could escalate, or the Middle East conflict could erupt further, with ripple effects that are huge due to the absence of coordination and inability to extinguish the fire quickly.
A New Kind of Conflict
Ellwood described the looming conflict as unlike previous world wars: 'This is not like World War II. This is not almighty battles between one side and another. It is a war of proxy conflicts and grey-zone warfare. It's a world at war on a multitude of levels that leads to countries no longer being able to rely on each other.' He noted that China withholds minerals, the Middle East withholds energy, and Western isolationism accelerates fragmentation. New alliances are forming around China while a 'reluctant, risk-averse West, particularly Europe, remains unsure of how to handle where the world is going.'
NATO's Failure and US Disengagement
On NATO, Ellwood criticised the alliance for failing its core purpose during Russia's invasion of Ukraine: 'You cannot have a re-emerging superpower invade part of Europe and have NATO do nothing about it. Essentially, that is what NATO did; they sat on their hands.' He also criticised US disengagement under Donald Trump, quoting him as saying: 'Right, they're not following the rules, so neither are we. From now on, I'm going to look after America.'
Roots in Post-9/11 Hubris
Ellwood traced the roots of the current crisis to post-9/11 hubris: 'For me, that moment came in about 2005 when we became too arrogant. We assumed we had provided the answer to global prosperity and enforced democracy in Iraq and Afghanistan specifically, in ways that backfired completely. We lost the moral authority to lead the global order from a Western perspective.' He noted that adversaries like Russia and China never bought into the Western system, with China teaching historical grievances daily.
Political Turbulence in Britain
On political turbulence undermining leadership in Britain, Ellwood said: 'We are now about to embark on what I think is our seventh prime minister in 10 years. That is not a promotion for our democratic system.'
Book Outlines Steps to Prevent WW3
In his 2026 book, Ten Steps to Prevent World War 3, Ellwood sets out measures to reverse the slide, from understanding enemies and spotting new battlefields to reasserting statecraft. The book warns of complacency after the Cold War and emphasises that the current trajectory is preventable.
