Andy Burnham will be finished before he has scarcely started if his removal of a key element of the triple lock ignites the fury of older Britons. The frightening truth for the Labour Prime Minister is that the nation's older citizens are roughly twice as likely to vote as young Brits. As Jeremy Corbyn so fatally discovered, you can have legions of young people singing songs of praise to you in mass gatherings, but lose the support of pensioners, and you lose the election.
Turnout gap spells danger
The next general election may not take place until August 2029, and every day until then, the Conservatives and Reform will be hammering home their message that pensioners will be worse off under Labour while pulling apart every detail of their social care plans. Mr Burnham will soon realise it is easy to win cheers in a Liverpool conference hall; it is far harder to win back the trust of pensioners with clear memories of Rachel Reeves's assault on their winter fuel allowance and her attempts to draw more families into paying inheritance tax.
For his own survival, the Prime Minister should look at Ipsos's research into the estimated turnout at the last General Election. Fewer than four in 10 citizens aged 18 to 24 voted (37%). This compares with 64% of those in the 55 to 64 age group who were approaching pension age, and a colossal 73% of those aged 65-plus.
Social care concerns
When he talks about a National Care Service, this immediately makes you think about the NHS – a service which provides care free at the point of need and which does not present you with a bill for the use of a bed. But the Government's own briefing on Mr Burnham's plans states that the "service will not cover bed and board, for which existing means-tested council contributions will remain". Families will still have to navigate "payment agreements" to "help eligible people avoid having to sell their home during their lifetime to meet care costs".
There will be great disappointment if people know that when they pass away, much of the value of their home will disappear in payments for care accrued during their time of frailty. People who worked so hard to own a home want their children and grandchildren to benefit from their greatest asset.
Homeowner voting power
Again, Mr Burnham should look at the Ipsos turnout estimates and shudder. Only 37% of renters took part in the last General Election, compared with six out of 10 mortgage holders and 71% of homeowners.
Older Britons can be grateful that Mr Burnham has put the issues of social care and pensions so high on the political agenda. The challenge for Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage now is to develop better plans. The fight is on for the trust of our elder citizens, who proudly use their hard-won votes. This is democracy in action, and Mr Burnham may well regret the day he took his screwdriver to the triple lock.
