Epidemiologists have warned that 27 regions in Russia are now facing a generalized HIV epidemic, as the virus spreads among the entire population rather than only among at-risk groups. The warning comes from experts at the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, who say the human immunodeficiency virus is increasingly affecting the general public.
Hardest-Hit Regions and Rising Case Numbers
Among the 27 regions battling the outbreak, the situation is most dire in the Russian regions of Kemerovo, Irkutsk and Sverdlovsk. Despite a decline in HIV-related deaths and mortality in Russia in recent years, the number of people infected continues to grow.
More than 1.2 million people in Russia are confirmed to be diagnosed with HIV, which is around 0.8% of the country's population. Fears have been sparked that if the country does not change its approach to prevention and treatment, the number of people diagnosed with HIV could reach 1.47 million by 2030.
Continued Spread and Viral Load Concerns
Natalia Ladnaya, a researcher at the department for the Prevention and Control of AIDS at Rospotrebnadzor, has explained how the disease is continuing to spread amongst the population. Statistics show that for each death there are one and a half new infections. The expert added that the number of people "living with HIV continues to grow constantly" because of this.
Ladnaya also warned that only half of the people living with HIV in Russia had a suppressed viral load at the end of 2025. The NHS states: "HIV is a virus that weakens your immune system and increases your risk of serious illness. There’s currently no cure, but with treatment most people with HIV can live a long and healthy life."
People who have been diagnosed with HIV and have an unsuppressed viral load can pass the disease on to others via infected body fluids. The NHS adds: "HIV is most often spread by having vaginal, anal or oral sex with someone who has HIV, while not using a condom. This is because HIV is spread by infected body fluids getting into your bloodstream. This includes blood, semen, vaginal fluids and mucus from inside the anus."
Transmission Risks and Mortality Figures
Ladnaya has stated that due to around half of those with HIV in Russia not having suppressed viral loads, at least 600,000 people with HIV "continue to play an active part in transmitting the virus." This further complicates prevention efforts. In recent years, the number of people who have died from HIV in Russia has been between 30,000 and 34,000 per year.
Central Research Institute of Epidemiology director Vasily Akimkin has warned these numbers are seriously concerning. Akimkin said: "Among all the countries in the world there are only 15 where more than 15,000 deaths of people with HIV are recorded, including Russia." The expert added: "The highest HIV incidence rates per 100,000 population in the European region are in Russia, Ukraine and North Macedonia."
Previous Plague Scare Context
The development comes after a suspected outbreak of the Black Death hit Russia after a woman died following reports she contracted the disease while working in a lab. The outbreak forced multiple health facilities to go into lockdown and people to quarantine. The Kremlin and Russian health watchdog Rospotrebnadzor have downplayed the reports of the woman’s death. Authorities in the country claimed the post-mortem examination found no trace of the plague and the woman died from an unrelated pneumonia.
