Health officials are warning of “ominous” signs for hospitals ahead of winter as flu infections rise in the capital. The latest UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) surveillance report shows that, while flu levels in London are relatively low, September's figures have exceeded those recorded during the same timeframe over the past four years.
Nationally during the week of September 28 to October 4, flu swab positivity increased from 5.0% to 6.5%, while hospital admissions for the virus reached 1.97 per 100,000 people. Within London, by the end of September virus tests positivity was at 5.6% - up from just 2.5% at the end of August.
Rising cases and NHS strain
The upward trend, which has been rising steadily since August, has been driven by cases among young people, according to the data. The rise has added to the strain on the NHS in the capital.
There were around 433,000 A&E attendances in London in September, a rise of almost 24,500 on August, and 129,900 ambulance incidents, up around 730 on the previous month.
The NHS national medical director has revealed that hospital admissions for the virus are at the "highest" level she can recall for this point in the year, while cautioning that there are “slightly ominous” early indicators of winter pressures building for the health service.
Health chiefs urge vaccination
Professor Frankie Swords told a briefing: “From an NHS perspective, it is very early in the season, but the number of admissions for flu are the highest that I can remember seeing at this time of year, and it's coincided with just the start of the expected increase in Covid cases in our hospitals. “But this is coming on the back of the busiest summer we've ever had in our emergency departments, we have got very, very busy hospitals. So slightly ominous early signs of winter pressure."
Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, has warned that people should come forward for protection without delay. He said: “Flu levels are increasing with the possibility of an early flu season so now is the time for those eligible to get vaccinated. “The vaccine contains components to help protect against all three types of flu virus. We may see one flu virus dominating at different times during winter, or all three circulating at similar levels throughout.
“As we saw with last year’s dominant virus, flu vaccines typically remain effective at preventing severe flu, even when drifted strains are seen."
Vaccination impact and advice
NHS London’s Chief Nurse, Karen Bonner, has also urged Londoners to get vaccinated as soon as possible. Last winter, around 300 hospital beds in London were occupied by patients with flu each day as the virus reached unprecedented levels. However, research suggests that the vaccination programme, which reached 2.1 million Londoners, prevented around 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,100 deaths.
Prof Swords said that 3.9 million people in England have already received their flu jab since the beginning of last month, when pregnant women, toddlers and school-age children from September 1 became eligible. Those aged over 65 and other eligible adults have been offered the vaccine since October 1.
Chief Nurse Bonner said: “I urge all eligible Londoners to get vaccinated by booking an appointment or visiting a walk-in site as soon as possible.
“Vaccination is the best protection against becoming seriously ill, both for yourself and those around you, and it helps reduce the mounting pressure on the capital’s NHS services this winter.
“Flu is far more serious than a bad cold. Every winter, thousands of children need hospital care because of the virus, while pregnant women are also at greater risk of becoming seriously unwell. Anyone can carry and spread flu without ever showing symptoms themselves, which is why vaccination matters even for those who feel healthy.
“Side effects of having the vaccination are typically mild, such as a sore arm or slightly raised temperature for a day or two, and far less severe than flu itself."
Dr Chris Streather, Regional Medical Director for the NHS in London, added: “It's easy to think flu is only a problem once winter sets in, but the virus doesn't wait for cold weather, and neither should you. For some children and pregnant women, it can lead to serious illness or a hospital stay. “Vaccination takes just a few minutes, yet it offers real protection, both for you and for the people around you who may be more vulnerable to serious illness. Getting it done now means you're already protected by the time winter pressures and illness really start to bite.
Prof Swords said: “In September, on average, 95% of our occupancy was used every day, and that's September. “So although the weather's still nice, and perhaps people aren't thinking too much about flu at the moment, please, we are acting early, and I'd really encourage people to act early.
“Because winter is coming, and the pressure is going to build and rise as temperatures fall."
Covid cases also rising
It comes as the surveillance report shows that Covid cases have more than doubled nationally, and hospital admissions are up five-fold in the last month. The data shows that 1,374 people in Britain contracted Covid in August - but in September, this jumped 230% to 4,589.
The data is more concerning when focussing on the end of the month, with cases rising nationally by almost 30% in the seven days to September 23.
Dr Alex Allen, Consultant Epidemiologist from the UKHSA, told BBC Radio London: “Over the last month or two we have seen increases in COVID activity, both in terms of case numbers and hospital admissions. “COVID continues to circulate in the UK on a regular basis. The last major peak was around a year ago, so this is roughly the time of year when we would expect activity to increase again.
“As we enter winter, changes in weather and people spending more time indoors contribute to the spread of respiratory viruses. In addition, immunity gained from previous infections and vaccinations can wane over time."
