Global heating could worsen housing affordability, push up rents and quadruple homelessness in a decade unless fairer housing policies and action to reduce emissions are taken, new research from the University of Sydney has found.
Researchers modelled the housing market system using two decades of public data and tested its response under different climate scenarios. They found that under a high-emissions future, homelessness could be four times higher by 2036 as homes become more expensive and rents rise relative to incomes.
Associate Professor Nader Naderpajouh from the University of Sydney said the impacts of global heating on housing were 'very unequal' and particularly affected renters and people experiencing homelessness. He urged policymakers to prioritise support for low-income renters and address homelessness through targeted measures.
The study, published in the journal Cities, used scenarios based on IPCC pathways. The low-emissions scenario aligns with the Paris Agreement goal to limit heating to 1.5-2°C, while the high-emissions path assumes continued fossil fuel exploitation.
Lead author Peyman Habibi-Moshfegh said: 'The pressure is already on for Australians in the housing market and we see worsening social inequities in the future. We need to design fairer housing policies or this is the trajectory we’re heading towards.'
