Britain is “a few weeks away” from medicine shortages ranging from painkillers to cancer treatment if the conflict with Iran continues, experts have warned. Drug prices could also rise as supply chain disruptions worsen.
The war has disrupted the supply of crucial raw materials, including oil, gas, crop fertiliser and helium, and health essentials are now at risk. David Weeks, director of supply chain risk management at Moody’s, described it as a “perfect storm” due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and India’s role as a major producer of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs).
With airports in Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi operating limited schedules, pharmaceutical companies have rerouted shipments via air or sea, lengthening journey times. Mark Samuels, chief executive of Medicines UK, which represents manufacturers of cheap, off-patent drugs that make up 85% of NHS medications, said the situation is serious but not yet a crisis. He noted that if the conflict continues, shortages could emerge within weeks, as distributors typically hold only six to eight weeks of stock.
The UK produces about a quarter of its medicines domestically, while a third come from India and another third from the EU. The war has doubled air freight costs, and manufacturers are struggling to absorb them due to historically low margins. Samuels warned this could make some medicines lossmaking to supply to the NHS.
Wouter Dewulf, a professor at Antwerp Management School, said supplies are currently “disturbed” but not disrupted. He expects single-digit price increases if the situation worsens. Frank Van Gelder of Pharma.Aero noted that air cargo levels dropped 80% earlier this month, hitting the drugs sector hard due to its reliance on frequent flights for transporting expensive treatments, biologics and clinical trial drugs.
Higher crude oil and natural gas prices also affect the cost of petrochemical products needed to manufacture APIs and medical supplies like syringes and vials. Van Gelder warned that ultimately, patients will bear the cost.
