Novo Nordisk, the Danish manufacturer of weight-loss drugs Wegovy and Ozempic, has forecast a sharp decline in revenue for 2026, blaming lower US drug prices driven by Donald Trump's administration, rising competition, and the loss of patent protections. The company's share price fell 17% on Wednesday, wiping out all gains for the year and bringing its 12-month decline to nearly 50%.
Sales are expected to fall between 5% and 13% in 2026, ending years of double-digit growth. In 2025, total sales rose 10% to 309bn Danish kroner (£36.6bn), while pre-tax profit increased 3% to 130.5bn kroner. Chief executive Mike Doustdar described the pricing pressure as 'unprecedented' and 'painful', but expressed hope that lower prices would drive higher volumes of obesity and diabetes drugs.
The company has agreed to cut US prices from over $1,000 a month to an average of $350, as part of a deal with the Trump administration. Additionally, the patent for semaglutide, the active ingredient in its key drugs, has expired in several countries including India, allowing generic competitors. However, Novo retains patent protection in Europe and Japan until 2033, and in the US until 2032.
Novo's outlook contrasts sharply with that of US rival Eli Lilly, which last year became the first pharmaceutical company to reach a $1tn valuation. Lilly forecast stronger-than-expected sales and profit growth for 2026, estimating sales of $80bn to $83bn, up from $65bn in 2025. Lilly's Mounjaro jab has shown greater weight loss in clinical studies.
Despite the challenges, Novo highlighted a strong launch of its new Wegovy pill, an oral version of its popular injection. By late January, weekly prescriptions in the US reached 50,000. The pill is priced between $149 and $299 a month for cash payers, with Amazon's pharmacy offering it at $25 for insured customers. It is the first GLP-1 tablet on the market, with Lilly expected to launch its own pill in the spring.
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, commented: 'Donald Trump’s crusade on drug prices, patent expiration, and competition all had their part to play. It wasn’t all bad news, with an extremely strong launch for the Wegovy pill, and a reminder of strong clinical progress in the next-generation pipeline at the tail-end of 2025.'
