Research suggests that a third of UK teenagers who vape will subsequently start smoking tobacco, undermining decades of progress in reducing youth smoking rates. The study, led by the University of Michigan and published in the journal Tobacco Control, found that 17-year-olds who vaped had a 33% likelihood of starting smoking, compared with just 1.5% among those who did not vape.
The analysis, which drew on data from three UK birth cohorts born in 1958, 1970 and 2001, indicates that e-cigarettes are increasingly acting as a 'gateway' to nicotine for young people. The overall probability of smoking for an average teenager fell from 30% in the 1958 cohort to 9.5% in the 2001 cohort – but researchers warn that this decline may now be reversed as vaping becomes more common among adolescents.
Separate figures from Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) show that 20% of 11- to 17-year-olds in Great Britain have tried vaping, representing approximately 1.1 million children. While this figure is unchanged from 2023, it follows a tripling in the number of young vapers over the previous three years. The proportion of youths who smoke has also risen, from 14% in 2023 to 21% in 2025.
The academics noted that, although the study did not establish a causal link, the findings are 'especially concerning' given the rising popularity of vaping. They highlighted that the success of previous tobacco control efforts may be offset when adolescents use e-cigarettes. The research accounted for risk factors including alcohol consumption, educational engagement, impulse control, and parental smoking behaviour, all of which remained broadly similar across the three cohorts.
Steve Turner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, described the findings as 'incredibly concerning'. He warned that vaping could undo decades of work to prevent young people from smoking, adding: 'Smoking continues to be the leading cause of preventable illness and death in the UK. We all must take urgent steps to prevent young people from being drawn into smoking by vaping.'
