A new report from the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) claims that hundreds of thousands of women are missing out on motherhood, partly due to a delay in young men maturing into adulthood. The think tank, founded by former Tory MP Sir Iain Duncan Smith, projects that around three million women aged 16 to 45 will not have children under current trends, compared to 2.4 million if birth rates matched those of their grandparents' generation. This represents a shortfall of approximately 600,000 women having children.
The report, published on Sunday, cites declining marriage rates and the later average age of motherhood as key factors. It also suggests that male employment and education trends may play a role. In the past, a 24-year-old man would likely have been married, had a child, and worked for a decade, but now men leave home at an average age of 25. The CSJ recommends encouraging marriage at a younger age and for men to 'enter adulthood' earlier to boost birth rates.
The report is supported by Miriam Cates, a former Tory MP who has voiced concerns about declining fertility. It also proposes 'pro-natal' policies such as tax cuts and benefit changes to incentivise family formation. However, it warns that financial incentives without addressing low marriage rates are 'putting the cart before the horse', citing an analysis from the Financial Times that links falling birth rates to a 'relationship recession' among adults.
The CSJ warns that falling fertility could impact the ratio of pensioners to working-age people, potentially requiring the state pension age to rise to 75 by 2093. The report follows data from the Office for National Statistics showing a decline in total fertility rates between 2012 and 2023, with projections for further decreases among women under 30.
