At least 160,000 people are expected to be removed from Australia's National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) by 2030, as the Albanese government seeks to curb the scheme's soaring costs. Health Minister Mark Butler announced the overhaul on Wednesday, saying the NDIS costs too much and is growing too fast, and that without changes it would become unsustainable.
The government will reduce the scheme's annual growth rate to 2% by 2030, down from 10.3% last year, and cut the projected budget from over A$70bn (£37bn) to about A$55bn (£29bn). Currently, 760,000 people are on the NDIS; under the changes, enrolment will be capped at 600,000 by 2030, down from earlier forecasts of 900,000. Eligibility rules will be tightened, and the categories of service providers required to register will be expanded to include higher-risk activities such as personal care and daily living supports.
Butler defended the changes as unavoidable and urgent, stating that the NDIS had been on track to support more than one million participants by 2033, costing A$95.8bn by 2034-35. However, the opposition, the Greens, and disability advocates have warned that vulnerable Australians could be left without care. Greens leader Larissa Waters accused the government of balancing the budget by selling disabled people's dignity, while Queensland's disability minister Amanda Camm said costs would be shifted to the states without proper consultation.
Former NDIS minister Bill Shorten acknowledged that new support mechanisms would be needed for those removed from the scheme, stressing that the NDIS cannot be the only safety net. Shadow NDIS minister Melissa McIntosh welcomed provider registration and digital payment but said more work was needed to prevent fraud, adding that vulnerable people must not be left without care. The changes are expected to face fierce debate in parliament.
