Hundreds of British species could become extinct within the next 20 years unless urgent action is taken, researchers have warned. A study led by the UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology modelled the impact of climate change and land use on more than 1,000 native species, finding that under worst-case scenarios, 196 plant, 31 bird and seven butterfly species could be lost forever by 2070.
Species at particular risk include the merlin, Britain's smallest bird of prey, the mountain ringlet and large heath butterflies, and plants such as burnt orchid, grass-of-Parnassus and alpine gentian. For plants and birds, the projected extinction rates are more than three times the historic rate in Great Britain.
Lead author Dr Rob Cooke said: 'Our results show that the next 20 years are critical. By around 2050, we reach a point where the choices we make on emissions and land use will largely determine whether Britain moves towards a much more degraded or a much more nature-positive future.' The study, published in Nature Communications, found that extinction risk increased under all scenarios, but was worst when fossil fuel use remained high combined with housing expansion, weakened environmental regulations and intensive agriculture.
Even under mild warming scenarios, some species are likely already doomed due to past environmental changes. However, sustainable policies could prevent up to 69 extinctions compared with the worst-case scenario. 'The choices we make now will set Britain on a path either towards accelerating biodiversity loss or towards nature recovery,' Dr Cooke added.
