The intensifying Super El Nino is growing in strength to what scientists are calling "unprecedented levels," with December expected to be its peak. Australia's weather experts said the average weekly sea-surface temperatures in the central Pacific have reached their highest level on record.
Record Temperatures and Forecasts
El Nino is firmly established, with big impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat expected to make 2026 the hottest year on record. Forecasts show near a 100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through to at least February.
The phenomenon, fuelled by the effects of human-powered climate change, has a brutal knock-on effect on all continents and has already entered unprecedented territory. Last month declared a new record for daily sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern Pacific, exceeding the previous record set during the very strong El Nino of 11 years ago.
Expert Warnings and Projected Death Toll
Dr Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, told the BBC: "We are currently witnessing an El Niño event that is unprecedented in the historical record." He added that the strength of El Nino this year is spilling out of the traditional El Nino region, with "astonishing" projections meaning records are likely to be broken "by a remarkable amount".
Scientists from the University of Chicago urged people to prepare for the potential devastating impact in the years ahead. According to the experts, death tolls could soar by the start of 2027, with 239,000 lives potentially lost in the next six months alone. Overall, they calculate 451,000 will die in total, based on a report using climate models to predict the impact of the event.
High-Risk Regions and Vulnerable Populations
The study forecasts that the countries projected to see the largest number of excess heat-related deaths include Nigeria and Indonesia. There will be more than 10,000 lives lost in Sudan, India, Brazil and Democratic Republic of the Congo, it has been claimed. Heat-related mortality is the total number of deaths caused directly by extreme heat or triggered when high temperatures worsen pre-existing medical conditions. People aged 65 and older face the highest risk from high temperatures.
Stressing the need for urgent action in areas flagged as high risk for deaths, the scientists fear deaths could rise in the northern hemisphere going into 2027.
