The United Nations has warned that a new El Niño weather pattern could begin within weeks, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record. The World Meteorological Organization stated that the event is likely to strengthen over the rest of 2026, driving more extreme weather globally. Several forecasts suggest it could even become a 'super' El Niño, with sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific rising more than two degrees Celsius above average.
Scientists have observed a significant warming of the central Pacific Ocean, with temperatures in the main monitoring region rising steadily since April. A huge wave of unusually warm water, more than 6°C above average in places, is moving eastwards across the Pacific at depths of hundreds of metres. This deep-sea heat often precedes warmer surface waters, which then heat the air above and disrupt weather patterns worldwide.
UN Secretary General António Guterres warned that 'El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.' The event is expected to fuel hot, dry weather in parts of South America, Southeast Asia and Australia, raising the risk of droughts and wildfires. It could also weaken the Indian monsoon, bring drier conditions to the Horn of Africa, and increase flooding risks in the southern United States. In the UK, El Niño may increase the chances of a mild start and cold end to winter, though its influence on north-west Europe is less certain.
Past strong El Niño events have been linked to spikes in food prices and trillions of dollars in lost income globally due to crop failures and trade disruptions. However, predicting the exact strength of this El Niño remains challenging, as it is sensitive to wind patterns that are difficult to forecast far in advance. Even if it falls short of 'super' status, the consequences could still be extreme, as the planet is already experiencing record heat from human-caused climate change.
