A beloved Louisiana city could be fully submerged in seawater as early as this century, and experts warn residents they may need to pack up and leave now. New Orleans sits mostly below sea level and is no stranger to the threat of rising oceans.
Rising Seas Threaten New Orleans
Experts say coastal Louisiana could see sea levels rise by 10 to 23 feet, destroying the wetlands that shield the city from hurricanes and pushing the shoreline inland by up to 62 miles, according to a recent analysis published in the journal Nature Sustainability.
“Coastal Louisiana has been referred to as a ‘canary in the coal mine’ with respect to climate impacts,” experts wrote in the paper. The authors continued that the region has “crossed the point of no return,” adding that it “may well be surrounded by the Gulf of Mexico before the end of this century.”
Geological Evidence
Experts predicted this by diving into Louisiana’s geological past. One scientist discovered evidence of an ancient coastline 30 miles north of New Orleans from 125,000 years ago. The Earth was as warm then as it is today, but the sea levels were at least 10 feet higher. The finding suggests today’s warming could eventually reshape Louisiana’s coastline.
“It’s very likely that sea level will rise to that elevation in the future,” co-author Torbjörn Törnqvist told CNN.
Wetlands Disappearing
Louisiana’s wetlands act as a protective buffer against storm surges, but they are rapidly disappearing as land is drained for development and canals are dredged for oil and gas projects. The southern region has already lost around 2,000 square miles of wetlands, and rising sea levels are expected to worsen the damage.
To avoid a future catastrophic outcome, experts argue the city should develop relocation plans. Co-author Brianna Castro told CNN that residents have been leaving the city for years. Since Hurricane Katrina devastated Louisiana in 2005 and killed about 1,400 people, the city’s population has dropped a staggering 25 percent. New Orleans lost 39,000 residents between 2020 and 2024, making it the fastest-shrinking metro area in the United States, according to US Census data.
Castro called the decline “pulse-like,” saying each major storm or disaster drives many people to leave the city.
Relocation Challenges
But relocation isn’t a simple solution, as the cost of living has increased and residents don’t want to leave their community and culture. Törnqvist also says the idea isn’t really on policymakers’ minds right now, but experts are optimistic that New Orleans can be rebuilt on safer land without losing its culture.
“You don’t have to lose the spirit of New Orleans,” Castro said of relocation. Törnqvist and Castro emphasize their paper isn’t all negative, adding that planned relocation could help the city lead in sustainable development and coastal restoration.
