China is on course to cut greenhouse gas emissions faster than it has publicly committed to, even as its economy continues to grow, according to a new report by independent energy research firm BloombergNEF.
The New Energy Outlook 2026 projects China's emissions will fall 17 per cent from their 2023 peak by 2030, ahead of the pace the Asian giant is committed to under the Paris Agreement, despite posting GDP growth of around 5 per cent a year. Beijing's official climate commitment is to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.
By 2050, emissions are projected to fall 50 per cent from their peak, though they may still remain well above where the US or Europe are projected to be at that point. China remains the single largest contributor to global emissions reductions under BloombergNEF's central modelling scenario.
The broader outlook paints a picture of an energy transition driven as much by security concerns as by climate ambition. Three successive energy shocks this decade—the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and the war in the Middle East—have pushed nations heavily dependent on fossil fuel imports to accelerate the deployment of clean technologies.
Solar is projected to become the world's single largest source of electricity by 2032, driven by falling prices and massive overcapacity. Battery storage is expected to jump 17-fold, from 223 gigawatts in 2025 to 3.8 terawatts by 2035. The report also marks a significant revision to BloombergNEF's net zero scenario, with achieving 1.5C of warming now judged no longer feasible; under its maximum-effort pathway, peak warming reaches 1.81C.
