The Met Office has issued an updated forecast indicating that another heatwave is likely for the UK, following the third heatwave of the year. The weather agency predicts that conditions through to Tuesday will remain fine and dry with sunny spells, though some rain is possible in the north. The forecast from July 21 to 30 states that the weather will be initially predominantly dry with large sunny spells away from the northwest, where cooler, cloudier and wetter conditions are most likely. Areas in the south could experience isolated showers before the weekend, which is expected to be very warm again.
Extended Forecast and Temperature Trends
Toward the end of July, uncertainty increases, but the Met Office notes a potential return to drier, settled and warm conditions, especially in the south. Looking further ahead to July 31 to August 14, the longer-range forecast warns of a somewhat more changeable period involving some showers. Despite this, temperatures are likely to be above normal with some hot spells possible.
Extreme Weather Becoming the New Normal
The Met Office also issued a report warning that extreme weather, including high temperatures, will become the new normal for the country. Climate information scientist Mike Kendon explained that the record for the warmest year has been repeatedly broken recently, with the last four years all in the top five. He stated: "2025 was the UK’s warmest year on record, the sixth time this record has been broken in the 21st Century so far. The last four years are all in the top five warmest years. With warming at around 0.25°C per decade since the 1980s, it seems likely this record will be broken again in a matter of years."
Impact of Temperature Extremes
Kendon added: "What is particularly concerning is how temperature extremes are being affected, as these cause the greatest impacts – a pattern we’ve seen again in 2026 so far. In parts of the south-east, the hottest day of the year has warmed by 4.5°C, three times that of annual mean temperature, and we are now coming to expect 35°C at some point in a hot spell in summer. Yet, despite historic heatwaves like 1976, overall temperatures as high as this were comparatively unusual in the 20th Century – back then we did not reach even 30°C, anywhere in the UK, in approximately one year in every five. As an illustration, the number of days of over 30°C has quadrupled in areas such as Greater London."
