The merlin, Britain's smallest bird of prey, is among more than 200 species at risk of extinction in the UK unless action is taken on emissions and land use, according to a study by the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH). Published in Nature Communications, the research warns that the next 20 years will be decisive for the country's biodiversity.
Scientists modelled six scenarios for 2050, ranging from strong climate action and sustainable land management to a worst-case scenario with high emissions and intensive agriculture. In the worst case, 196 plant species, 31 birds and seven butterflies would become extinct, more than triple the historical rate, and some areas could lose up to 20% of local species.
Lead author Dr Rob Cooke said: 'The choices we make now will set Britain on a path either towards accelerating biodiversity loss or towards nature recovery.' Species at risk include the merlin, mountain ringlet and large heath butterflies, and plants such as burnt orchid, grass-of-Parnassus and Alpine gentian.
Even under milder warming, past habitat destruction means many species may already be doomed. However, adopting sustainable policies could save 69 species compared with the worst-case scenario. The UK, already one of the most nature-depleted regions globally, faces an ecological 'point of no return' by 2050.
