Extreme Heat Threatens European Productivity and Economic Growth
Extreme Heat Threatens European Productivity and Economic Growth

Monique Mosley, a worker at a food factory in Yorkshire, described June's record-breaking heatwave as unbearable. "We make hot filled food products and it's common that we see temperatures in the high 30s," she said. "Thanks to our union, our employer is offering extra breaks, but not every workplace is the same."

The latest heatwave gripping the UK and much of western Europe has presented significant challenges to employers and employees, from sweltering offices and disrupted commutes to dangerous construction sites where workers risk dehydration, heatstroke, and other injuries.

Economic Impact of Extreme Heat

Economists warn that increasing spells of extreme heat significantly impact productivity and threaten Europe's already sluggish economies. Robert Marks, lead climate economist at Oxford Economics, said temperatures in the high 30s and low 40s would "likely lead to substantial productivity losses and directly disrupt labour across construction, agriculture, manufacturing, retail and hospitality and other sectors which are unable to provide a protected work environment."

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These sectors represent 27% of economic activity in the UK and an average of 35% in western Europe. According to Marks, a four-day heatwave "could reduce quarterly labour productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points in the UK and up to two percentage points in the rest of western Europe."

Sectors Most Affected

The largest loss of working hours in western, northern, and southern Europe by 2030 is expected in agriculture and construction, according to research by the International Labour Office. Researchers at Allianz found extreme heat emerging as a "structural economic risk" for Europe, with France, Spain, and Italy among the most exposed economies. The study found productivity losses intensify sharply above a 30°C threshold, while energy costs for cooling machinery and buildings rise.

Under Allianz's stress scenario, France could lose $240 billion (£182 billion) in economic output between 2026 and 2030, followed by $147 billion for Italy and $120 billion for Spain, representing a cumulative loss of up to 7% of GDP. Katharina Utermöhl, head of thematic and policy research at Allianz Investment Management and co-author of the study, said: "The heatwave is not an exception, it is a direction. Extreme heat costs all of us as workers, as businesses, as taxpayers, and there is a difference between countries that adapt and those that wait. It would be better to stop treating it as a summer problem and start treating it as a permanent economic policy challenge."

Workplace Regulations and Responses

While UK workplace regulations set a minimum working temperature (16°C for offices, 13°C for strenuous work), there is no maximum legal temperature. The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) advises employers to maintain a "reasonable" temperature and suggests rescheduling work to cooler times, providing more frequent breaks, and ensuring access to cool drinking water. David D'Souza, director of profession for the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development, noted that flexible working helps but is not available to all organisations.

In Italy, the Lazio region around Rome ordered construction workers and delivery riders not to work between 12:30pm and 4pm on Wednesday, though reports indicated some riders flouted the order. In the UK, refuse collectors in parts of the south began rounds as early as 4am.

Flexibility and Inequality

Many office workers have been allowed to work from home on the hottest days, but workers such as nurses, bakers, transport, and shop staff cannot. Trade unions have called for a maximum working temperature, but the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) advocates a "commonsense approach." Matthew Percival, the CBI's future of work and skills director, said: "Employers have a duty of care to their employees which includes managing heat-related risks."

Elusive Brewing, an independent brewery in Berkshire, halted production for much of the week. Owner Andy Parker said: "We don't want to be brewing… [It's] north of 40 degrees in the brewery and that's not safe for staff. Our brewer came in on Monday at 5am to make sure we were done by midday and we've cancelled Friday's brew and moved it to next week."

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International Comparisons

France and Germany also lack a maximum legal temperature, but French authorities introduced regulations last summer requiring employers to alter schedules, reduce sun exposure, and provide drinking water. German employers must cool workplaces if temperatures exceed 30°C, with stricter rules at 35°C. Spanish workers who cannot reach their workplace are entitled to up to four days of paid leave, and companies can temporarily suspend contracts if more time is needed.

In the UK, workers have faced cancelled trains, more breakdowns, and school closures. Catrin Mills, an employment lawyer at Sharpe Pritchard, said employees do not have an automatic right to time off if a child's school is closed, but they can take reasonable unpaid time off for dependants to make alternative arrangements.