China's carbon dioxide emissions have been flat or falling for nearly two years, raising fresh questions over whether the world's biggest emitter has reached a turning point. Emissions fell one per cent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and likely declined by around 0.3 per cent over the year as a whole, keeping them slightly below the record levels reached in early 2024.
The figures come from new analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air for Carbon Brief, which tracks monthly energy production, fuel use, and industrial output. This is the longest such stretch on record that has not been driven by an economic slowdown, according to lead analyst Lauri Myllyvirta.
The stabilisation has occurred despite continued growth in electricity demand. Power consumption rose by 520 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2025, but new clean generation more than covered that increase. Solar output rose 43 per cent year-on-year, wind generation 14 per cent, and nuclear eight per cent, together supplying roughly 530TWh of additional electricity. As a result, coal-fired generation fell by 1.9 per cent and overall power-sector emissions dropped by 1.5 per cent.
Emissions from transport declined by three per cent, while cement and other building materials fell by seven per cent. Metals also recorded a three per cent decline. However, the chemicals industry remains the main source of growth, with emissions rising 12 per cent in 2025 driven by increases in coal and oil use. Without the rise in chemicals, total emissions would have fallen by an estimated two per cent rather than 0.3 per cent.
Another notable shift came in energy storage. China added 75 gigawatts (GW) of storage capacity in 2025, while peak electricity demand increased by 55GW. It was the first year that storage growth outpaced peak demand growth, potentially reducing the need to rely on new coal and gas plants to meet short bursts of high demand.
Whether the current plateau becomes a sustained decline will depend largely on decisions in the next five-year plan, due in March. Mr Myllyvirta said: 'Since policymakers do not appear ready to commit to cutting emissions over the next five years, the most important thing would be removing barriers to continued growth in clean energy.' He added that recent clean-energy additions could help prevent a rebound in the short term, but a modest rebound could see emissions exceed the early 2024 peak.
