UK Flood Warning: 800,000 More Homes Face High Risk by 2080

A stark new analysis has warned that over 800,000 homes across the United Kingdom could face a severe risk of flooding by the year 2080, as environmental campaigners highlight the escalating impacts of climate change on British households. The research, conducted by flood risk assessment firm Geosmart on behalf of Greenpeace, indicates that approximately 866,000 properties – a figure equivalent to all homes in Birmingham, Liverpool, and Sheffield combined – could be at "high" or "very high" risk.

Climate Scenario and Regional Breakdown

This projection is based on a scenario where global temperatures rise by 2.4°C above pre-industrial levels. The analysis compared the level of flood risk faced by each region and local authority across Britain under this climate scenario, revealing significant disparities.

Scotland emerges as the most affected area, with 386,716 homes potentially facing high or very high risk, amounting to 19% of all Scottish homes. Other regions show varying levels of vulnerability:

South East England: 122,484 homes (2% of regional homes)
Wales: 71,431 homes (5%)
South West England: 65,884 homes (3%)
East of England: 59,918 homes (2%)
East Midlands: 53,229 homes (2%)
North West England: 45,320 homes (2%)
Yorkshire and the Humber: 35,459 homes (2%)
West Midlands: 18,049 homes (1%)
North East England: 7,595 homes (1%)

Current Climate Context and Urgent Calls for Action

The findings come as communities nationwide have been battered by storms, relentless rainfall, and widespread flooding in recent weeks, with the South East and southern England experiencing their wettest start to the year on record. As of early 2026, the world has seen a long-term global warming increase of approximately 1.2°C to 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates this could reach around 2.7°C by 2100 based on current policies.

In the UK, scientists note that climate conditions have become increasingly volatile, with six of the ten wettest winters on record occurring in the last two decades. A separate analysis of Environment Agency data by Friends of the Earth released on Wednesday found that one million homes across England – or 2.4 million people – are already at the highest risk of flooding.

Phillip Evans, Greenpeace UK’s senior climate campaigner, stated: "The economic cost of the storms and floods battering Britain is skyrocketing. Our data clearly shows that more and more homes will face rising flood risk due to extreme weather events. Already, homes in some areas are becoming uninsurable and in certain cases insurers are abandoning towns, leaving councils to pick up the tab."

Political and Social Implications

Ahead of local elections in May, green groups are urging the Government and other political parties to take decisive action. They call for policies that compel polluters to pay, adequately fund local authorities and emergency services, and guarantee access to affordable home insurance for those affected.

Friends of the Earth's research highlighted that if countries fail to reduce planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions, a further 1.89 million people will be pushed into the higher risk category. It also identified those facing additional social risks, including 611,000 people who are least able to prepare for, react to, or recover from flooding due to factors such as low incomes, renting, disability, and lack of insurance.

Mike Childs, head of policy at Friends of the Earth, emphasized: "We need to protect people from flooding now, while also investing in our futures through smart, green policies that cut emissions, ramp up homegrown renewables to bring down our bills and boost energy security, create jobs and, ultimately, help prevent the worst of climate breakdown."

Supporting these calls, Kamran Mallick, chief executive at Disability Rights UK, noted: "The people who get forgotten are always the ones whose voices, understanding and lived experience are missing in decision-making conversations." Meanwhile, Steve Wright, general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union, warned: "Firefighters are the only professionals trained and equipped to tackle these emergencies, yet the very services the public relies on are being stripped back by relentless cuts."

As the UK grapples with these escalating threats, the study serves as a critical reminder of the urgent need for comprehensive climate action and robust flood defence strategies to safeguard vulnerable households and communities across the nation.