Global Fertiliser Crisis Threatens Harvests as Iran War Disrupts Supply Chains
A critical chokehold on key maritime trade routes is exposing the profound fragility of global food systems, with severe fertiliser shortages now poised to impact farmers and consumers across the world. The escalating conflict involving Iran has triggered this supply chain crisis, creating immediate risks to agricultural productivity and food security.
Immediate Impact on Farmers and Planting Seasons
From the rice paddies of Punjab to the maize fields of Kenya, farmers are bracing for a devastating fertiliser shock. The disruption stems from Tehran's near-total shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for US and Israeli bombing campaigns. This strategic passage typically handles approximately one-fifth of global oil shipments and nearly a third of international fertiliser trade.
Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program, warns that the shortage arrives at the worst possible moment—just as planting seasons commence across the Northern Hemisphere. "In the worst-case scenario, this means lower yields and crop failures next season," Skau stated. "In the best case, higher input costs will inevitably be passed on to consumers through increased food prices next year."
Critical Nutrients Under Threat
The blockade is particularly affecting supplies of nitrogen and phosphate—two essential fertiliser nutrients. Nitrogen-based fertilisers, including widely-used urea, are hardest hit due to shipping delays and skyrocketing liquefied natural gas prices. Chris Lawson of CRU Group, a London-based commodities consultancy, confirms the conflict has restricted about 30 percent of global urea trade.
Phosphate supplies, crucial for root development, face similar pressures. Saudi Arabia produces roughly one-fifth of the world's phosphate fertiliser, while the region exports more than 40 percent of global sulfur—a key ingredient derived from oil and gas refining.
Regional Vulnerabilities and Government Responses
Some nations face especially critical situations. Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas, notes that Ethiopia receives over 90 percent of its nitrogen fertiliser from the Gulf through Djibouti—a supply route already strained before the February conflict began. "The planting season is now," Patel emphasized. "The fertiliser simply isn't there."
In India, the government has prioritized urea supplies for domestic use and provides fertiliser manufacturers with approximately 70 percent of their natural gas needs. Despite these measures, some plants continue operating below capacity, resulting in reduced output. The Indian government has budgeted $12.7 billion this year for urea subsidies alone, according to the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
Global Ripple Effects and Agricultural Consequences
The impact is already being felt in the United States and Europe, where main planting seasons are underway, with Asia expected to face similar challenges in coming months. Dirk Peters, an agricultural engineer operating a farm outside Berlin, explained the urgency: "Our crops need nitrogen now—the sooner the better—so they can establish themselves and build reserves for harvest later this summer."
While fertiliser prices remain below peaks seen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, current lower grain prices mean farmers face tighter margins. Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute notes this may force farmers to switch to less fertiliser-intensive crops or apply reduced amounts, inevitably decreasing yields.
Limited Alternatives and Long-Term Implications
Other major producers cannot easily compensate for the shortfall. China, the world's largest producer of nitrogen and phosphate fertilisers, is prioritizing domestic supply, with urea shipments unlikely to resume before May. Russian plants are already operating near full capacity.
Owen Gooch, an analyst with London-based Argus Consulting Services, warns that even after hostilities cease, Gulf producers would require clear security guarantees before resuming shipments through the strait, with insurance costs almost certainly increasing permanently.
African Agriculture Particularly Vulnerable
The crisis is acutely affecting African nations, where many farmers depend on fertiliser imports from the Middle East and Russia. Stephen Muchiri, a Kenyan maize farmer and CEO of the Eastern African Farmers Federation, reports that early heavy rains have left farmers with only about one week of dry weather to prepare fields and apply fertiliser. Research from Zambia indicates that even brief fertiliser delays can reduce maize yields by approximately 4 percent per season.
Calls for Systemic Change
Some experts see this crisis as an opportunity to reduce dependence on imported fertilisers. Oliver Oliveros, executive coordinator of the Agroecology Coalition, suggests this moment could represent a turning point: "Reduced reliance on imported fertilisers could better protect farmers and consumers from energy price volatility and climate shocks."
Hanna Opsahl-Ben Ammar of Yara International, one of the world's largest fertiliser companies, summarizes the fundamental challenge: "The global food system is inherently fragile, depending on stable fertiliser supply chains to ensure farmers can produce the food upon which the world relies."
As planting seasons progress worldwide, the agricultural community holds its breath, waiting to see whether fertiliser shipments can resume before irreversible damage occurs to harvests that feed billions.
