Oscars 2026 Predictions: AP Film Writers Forecast Tight Race After Actor Awards
The race for the 98th Academy Awards has dramatically tightened following unexpected victories at the recent Actor Awards, creating a more suspenseful atmosphere for the upcoming ceremony. Associated Press film writers Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle have provided their expert predictions for the top prizes, suggesting that what once seemed settled now appears considerably more competitive.
Best Picture: A Two-Horse Race Emerges
Nominees: "Bugonia"; "F1"; "Frankenstein"; "Hamnet"; "Marty Supreme"; "One Battle After Another"; "The Secret Agent"; "Sentimental Value"; "Sinners"; "Train Dreams."
Lindsey Bahr observes that "One Battle After Another" had been cruising through awards season as the clear front-runner, securing top honours at the Producers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, BAFTAs, and Golden Globes. However, Sunday's Actor Awards introduced a significant curveball when "Sinners" claimed the best ensemble prize. Bahr notes that while the Oscars suddenly appear less predictable, she still believes "One Battle After Another" will ultimately prevail, citing the Producers Guild Awards' stronger predictive track record over the past decade.
Jake Coyle describes the contest as essentially a two-horse race, with "Sinners" gaining crucial momentum at precisely the right moment as Oscar voters submitted their ballots. Michael B. Jordan's supporting win adds further uncertainty. Despite acknowledging "Sinners'" excellent upset potential, Coyle ultimately predicts "One Battle After Another" will win due to its more meaningful precursor awards and powerful contemporary resonance.
Best Actress: Buckley's Moment Arrives
Nominees: Jessie Buckley, "Hamnet"; Rose Byrne, "If I Had Legs I'd Kick You"; Kate Hudson, "Song Sung Blue"; Renate Reinsve, "Sentimental Value"; Emma Stone, "Bugonia."
Coyle identifies this as the evening's easiest prediction, forecasting that Jessie Buckley will win her first Oscar for "Hamnet." He suggests this victory represents not just recognition for her specific performance but a broader celebration of one of her generation's most talented and natural actors. Buckley's trajectory since her 2019 breakthrough in "Wild Rose" has been leading toward this moment, with emotionally powerful work proving consistently effective in Oscar campaigns.
Bahr concurs completely, noting that Coyle identified Buckley's potential earlier than most observers. She confirms that the Oscar appears essentially secured for Buckley already.
Best Actor: Campaigning Versus Regret
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet, "Marty Supreme"; Leonardo DiCaprio, "One Battle After Another"; Ethan Hawke, "Blue Moon"; Michael B. Jordan, "Sinners"; Wagner Moura, "The Secret Agent."
Bahr recalls that Chalamet initially seemed destined for victory, particularly following his disappointing loss the previous year. However, the BAFTAs shocker where no Hollywood actors won, combined with Jordan's genuinely heartfelt Actor Awards speech, may have shifted the momentum. While acknowledging there are no wrong choices in this strong category, Bahr predicts Jordan will claim the statue, creating an interesting case study in effective Oscar campaigning.
Coyle suspects many academy members would like to retroactively award Chalamet for last year's performance, but such regret may prove insufficient this time. He notes that it has been twenty-two years since a best actor winner triumphed without either BAFTA or actors guild recognition. Jordan's likely victory would represent his first Oscar nomination and long-overdue recognition for an under-honoured performer.
Supporting Categories: Veterans Versus Newcomers
Supporting Actress Nominees: Elle Fanning, "Sentimental Value"; Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, "Sentimental Value"; Amy Madigan, "Weapons"; Wunmi Mosaku, "Sinners"; Teyana Taylor, "One Battle After Another."
Coyle describes this as a closely contested category where three nominees have already secured notable wins: Madigan at the Actor Awards, Mosaku at the BAFTAs, and Taylor at the Globes. While Madigan's veteran status and charming Actor Awards speech give her a slight edge, Coyle predicts Taylor will triumph due to her blistering performance in what he expects will be the best picture winner.
Bahr suggests Madigan's win might reflect recognition from an organization with limited horror film appreciation. She agrees Taylor will likely take the award, celebrating her memorable character in "One Battle After Another."
Supporting Actor Nominees: Jacob Elordi, "Frankenstein"; Sean Penn, "One Battle After Another"; Stellan Skarsgård, "Sentimental Value"; Benicio Del Toro, "One Battle After Another"; Delroy Lindo, "Sinners."
Bahr notes that every nominee has received some recognition this season, with the contest seemingly narrowing to two-time Oscar winner Penn versus the never-honoured Lindo. Lindo's opportunity to shine during the Actor Awards ensemble acceptance speech might have provided crucial momentum.
Coyle predicts Penn will win based on his victories at both the BAFTAs and Actor Awards. The greater uncertainty involves whether Penn will attend the ceremony, having skipped the nominee luncheon and most previous events this season.
Director and International Categories
Best Director Nominees: Chloé Zhao, "Hamnet"; Josh Safdie, "Marty Supreme"; Paul Thomas Anderson, "One Battle After Another"; Joachim Trier, "Sentimental Value"; Ryan Coogler, "Sinners."
Coyle forecasts Anderson will finally claim his first Oscar, having won the Director Guild Award and generating industry-wide sentiment that he is overdue for recognition. Coogler's time will undoubtedly come in future years.
Bahr concurs that this is Anderson's year, hoping the Academy selects a special presenter for this long-awaited moment.
Best International Feature Nominees: "The Secret Agent," Brazil; "It Was Just an Accident," France; "Sentimental Value," Norway; "Sirat," Spain; "The Voice of Hind Rajab," Tunisia.
Coyle describes this as a stacked category that nevertheless excluded his personal favourite. He predicts Joachim Trier's "Sentimental Value" will win but acknowledges the more timely "The Secret Agent" might prove the better prediction. Both writers agree that Jafar Panahi's "It Was Just an Accident" most deserves victory.
Bahr waffles between predictions but ultimately selects "The Secret Agent," noting its best picture nomination, acting nod, and casting prize nomination alongside major contenders. She highlights the strength of Brazil's contingent within the Academy.
Documentary and Animated Features
Best Documentary Feature Nominees: "The Perfect Neighbor"; "The Alabama Solution"; "Come See Me in the Good Light"; "Cutting Through Rocks"; "Mr. Nobody Against Putin."
Bahr observes that after several years of internationally focused documentary winners, this year might shift attention back to domestic issues, exemplified by "The Alabama Solution" and "The Perfect Neighbor." She predicts Geeta Gandbhir's Netflix-distributed film about Florida's stand your ground laws will claim the prize.
Coyle expects "The Perfect Neighbor" to win but notes the documentary branch remains one of the Academy's quirkiest, often overlooking critics' favourite non-fiction films.
Best Animated Feature Nominees: "Arco"; "Elio"; "KPop Demon Hunters"; "Little Amélie or the Character of Rain"; "Zootopia 2."
Bahr playfully references the infectious soundtrack while acknowledging "KPop Demon Hunters" represents a culturally impactful choice that rarely wins this category. Coyle adds that by the crucial metric of Halloween costumes, "KPop" will win in a landslide, having inspired countless young fans to dress as demon-hunting KPop stars.
The 98th Academy Awards broadcast on Sunday, March 15 promises heightened drama following the Actor Awards surprises, with these predictions offering insight into how the evening might unfold as film academy members complete their final voting.
