England begin their Nations League A campaign on Saturday by hosting reigning world champions Spain at Wembley. The Three Lions finished third at the World Cup, missing out on a final won by Spain against Argentina in extra time.
Spain have reached the last two Nations League finals and have lost just two of their 18 fixtures in the competition, including the 2025 final to Portugal. England, by contrast, struggled in the Nations League since finishing third in the inaugural 2019 edition, dropping into League B in 2023 before winning promotion in 2024.
Nations League odds and favourites
Spain are favourites to win the Nations League, with most betting sites pricing the world champions at 3/1. England are offered at 9/2 by UK operators, ranked behind France at roughly 11/4 and level with Germany at around 9/2.
Football betting sites doubt England's home advantage will be enough to beat the Spaniards, with the World Cup winners clear favourites. England are priced at roughly 2/1, Spain at 6/4, and a draw floats around 13/5.
Prediction 1: Under 4.5 goals and Both Teams to Score
England's last game featured 10 goals in a 6-4 win over France in the third-place play-off. Spain conceded just once on their route to World Cup glory, though both teams scored in seven of their 10 Nations League fixtures in 2024 and 2025.
Tournament football differs from the Nations League, which sits between a glorified friendly and the competitiveness of qualification campaigns. Goals are expected, but Spain's defensive ability should keep the score relatively low. Priced at slightly better than evens, there is some margin here - a 2-2 draw would still see the bet win. Sky Bet offer the best odds on this selection.
Tip: Under 4.5 goals and BTTS - 11/10 Sky Bet
Prediction 2: Spain to win by one goal
Spain have not lost an international game inside 90 minutes since a friendly against Colombia in 2024 - a run of 38 games. In that time they lost just once, on penalties to Portugal in the 2025 Nations League final.
Spain have won seven of their last 22 competitive fixtures by a single goal. England's only two defeats in 2026 - a loss at Wembley to Japan and the World Cup semi-final defeat - were both by a single-goal margin.
Tip: Spain to win by one goal - 10/3 Bet365
Predicted lineups
England: Pickford; Quansah, Konsa, Guehi, O'Reilly; Anderson, Scott; Saka, Bellingham, Gordon; Kane.
Spain: Simon; Garcia, Cubarsi, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Nico Williams; Oyarzabal.
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