The Iran and Ukraine wars are becoming more intertwined by the week, with some analysts arguing the two conflicts are beginning to merge. Their interconnectedness is drawing more countries into both cauldrons, extending an arc of instability across Europe and the Middle East.
Russia has used Iranian-made Shahed drones since September 2022. After the US-Israeli assault on 28 February, Moscow reportedly returned the favour with intelligence, targeting and drones to Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent Middle East tour sealed agreements for drone and anti-drone technology with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, and initiated security talks with Jordan.
The conflicts converge through global energy markets. The attack on Iran and Tehran's closure of Gulf shipping via the Strait of Hormuz spiked oil and gas prices, benefiting Russia. The Trump administration eased some restrictions on Russian oil exports to stabilise the market. Asian countries including Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Sri Lanka are now lining up to buy Russian oil.
In response, Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, with Reuters estimating up to 40 per cent of Russia's oil export capacity halted. UK Defence Secretary John Healey pointed to Putin's 'hidden hand' behind Iran's drone tactics. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the wars are 'very much interlinked' and urged pressure on Russia.
The Trump administration has been reluctant to acknowledge the linkage, maintaining preferential treatment of Moscow. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted Russia's role in Iran was not impeding US operations. The Financial Times reported that Trump threatened to cut off weapon supplies to Ukraine if European allies did not help reopen the Hormuz strait. Zelenskyy said he received signals to scale back strikes but will continue as long as Russia targets Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Russia's deepening involvement in Iran's defence puts new pressure on Trump's pro-Russian inclinations. For the Kremlin, support to Iran offers a chance to rebuild geopolitical standing after setbacks.
