The Convergence of Two Major Conflicts
The wars in Ukraine and Iran are becoming more deeply interconnected with each passing week, leading some analysts to argue that the two conflicts are beginning to merge into a single, coordinated struggle. While predicting the exact trajectory of each war's influence on the other remains challenging, it is evident that their growing interconnectedness is drawing additional countries into both volatile situations, extending an arc of instability that spans from Europe to the Middle East.
Weapons and Intelligence Sharing
From Ukraine's perspective, the connection is not entirely new. Russia began deploying Iranian-made Shahed drones in September 2022, approximately seven months after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion. However, a recent development involves Moscow returning the favour to Tehran. Following the US-Israeli assault on February 28, there have been reports of Russia providing intelligence, targeting assistance, and drones to Iran.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent tour of the Middle East has further solidified cross-regional links between the two conflicts. The Ukrainian president secured agreements to supply drone and anti-drone technology and training to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, while also initiating similar security discussions with Jordan.
Economic and Energy Market Impacts
The two wars are also converging through global energy markets. The initial attack on Iran, coupled with Tehran's response of closing Gulf shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, benefited Russia through a spike in oil and gas prices. For Moscow, this increased demand has provided an economic lifeline at a time when its economy was facing growing strain, prompting the government to abandon plans for budget cuts.
To stabilise the market, the Trump administration has eased some restrictions on Russian oil exports that were originally intended to pressure the Kremlin over its war in Ukraine. Additionally, Asian countries affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—including Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka—are now lining up to purchase Russian oil.
In an effort to limit Russia's windfall, Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in recent days. A Reuters estimate last week indicated that up to 40% of Russia's oil export capacity had been halted following mass Ukrainian drone attacks.
Geopolitical Repercussions and International Responses
The conflicts have become so interlocked that events in one theatre of war now have a tangible impact on the other—a fact emphasised by European states anxious to avoid being drawn into a spiralling Middle East conflagration. UK Defence Secretary John Healey pointed to Putin's "hidden hand" behind Iran's drone tactics.
EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas stated, "These wars are very much interlinked. So if America wants the war in the Middle East to stop—Iran to stop attacking them—they should also put pressure on Russia so that they are not able to help them."
The Trump administration has been reluctant to acknowledge this linkage, maintaining preferential treatment of Moscow, easing sanctions, and allowing a Russian shipment of oil to break the US blockade on Cuba, even as evidence of Russian assistance to Iran continues to mount. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that Russia's role in Iran was not "impeding or affecting" US operations.
Hanna Notte, Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies, noted, "The Americans don't want to interlink the two wars and punish Russia." There are indications that the US is applying more pressure on Kyiv for its attacks on Russian oil facilities—which keep oil prices high—than on Moscow for supplying lethal weaponry to Iran to target US and allied forces.
Ukraine's Strategic Pivot and Regional Influence
Zelenskyy has alleged that Moscow provided Iran with intelligence based on satellite imagery ahead of an Iranian drone and missile strike on US planes and personnel at the Prince Sultan airbase in Saudi Arabia, which injured 12 Americans. Russia is also suspected of sending drones, potentially including Gerans—Moscow's own update on the Shahed—in road shipments disguised as humanitarian convoys.
Ukraine's hard-earned experience with Shaheds and Gerans has made Zelenskyy a sought-after figure in Gulf capitals. He has capitalised on this opportunity, offering to export low-cost, battlefield-tested technologies to address local weapons shortages while positioning Ukraine in a new global role: no longer merely a recipient of aid, but a supplier.
Kyiv is not only selling interceptors but also software, electronic warfare systems, and maritime drones. Orysia Lutsevych, Head of the Ukraine Forum at the Chatham House thinktank, explained that Ukraine's emerging security network in the Gulf provides the country with increased leverage in Washington—a direct response to Trump's repeated claims that Kyiv has "no cards" in its battle with Russia.
Lutsevych added, "Ukraine is trying to show that our cards are about being a very robust, agile, fast-adapting and producing economy that can both defend against Russia and also defend other countries through weapons system sales." She noted that these security relationships could offer a crucial alternative source of funding for Ukraine's arms industry, especially as EU funds remain blocked by Hungary.
Broader Implications for Global Stability
The interconnected regional conflicts are still some distance from escalating into a world war, according to William Spaniel, an Associate Political Science Professor at the University of Pittsburgh. However, he argued that they are "further connecting the battlefield outcomes, and it will have longer lasting implications for how the battle lines are divided."
Fiona Hill, a former Russia adviser in the first Trump administration and now at the Brookings Institution, contended that if modern forms of warfare—such as cyber, hybrid, and other grey zone operations—are considered, a world war has been underway for some time and has been brought closer to a boiling point by the Iran conflict.
Hill stated, "I think it meets that threshold for a system-changing war. There'll be all kinds of new configurations of countries that will have sprung up." She highlighted the unpredictable impact on global stability from oil and fertiliser shortages, which could motivate a wide array of other states to become involved in the Middle East, and raised the question of whether China might exploit Washington's distraction to take action against Taiwan.
Hill concluded, "We've got a 'four horses of the apocalypse' going here ... and I just feel that people are sleepwalking into it."
