Israel's 'Gaza Model' Threatens Lebanon as International Response Lags
A man surveys the aftermath of an Israeli strike on a healthcare centre in Borj Qalaouiya, southern Lebanon, on 15 March 2026. This scene underscores the escalating violence as Israel prepares to replicate its devastating 'Gaza model' in Lebanon, raising urgent questions about the lack of robust international reaction.
Escalating Rhetoric and Military Actions
Israeli media and political discourse are filled with calls for escalation in Lebanon, mirroring the early days of the Gaza conflict. In the past two weeks, Israeli airstrikes have killed close to 1,000 people in Lebanon, following Hezbollah's resumption of rocket fire into northern Israel in support of Iran. The Israeli army has issued blanket evacuation orders, displacing over a million people, and announced a targeted ground invasion, with officials briefing that they aim to mobilise hundreds of thousands of reservists to implement the Gaza model in Lebanon.
Key figures are not mincing words. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich warned that Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut, will soon resemble Khan Younis in Gaza, a city largely destroyed. Zvi Sukkot urged conquering and annexing territory in southern Lebanon, while Amit Halevi of Likud vowed to push the boundary to the Litani river, echoing Gaza's occupation. Defence Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to destroy villages near the border, akin to actions in Gaza, and engaged in psychological warfare with mocking leaflets dropped over Beirut.
Genocide Warnings and International Inaction
Opposition figures like Gadi Eisenkot have endorsed the Dahiyeh doctrine, a strategy of disproportionate force against civilians, while commentators such as Amit Segal and Yinon Magal called for advancing to the Litani river and destroying infrastructure. Former defence minister Yoav Gallant urged strikes across Lebanon, and Itamar Fleischmann advocated for destroying the country's civilian infrastructure. These statements form part of South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, prompting the Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention to issue a red flag alert for Israel in Lebanon.
Despite differences from Gaza, such as Lebanon's open borders allowing media access, Israel's impunity-driven actions in Gaza suggest a grim future for Lebanon. The army may seize southern regions, using AI-targeted airstrikes and white phosphorus, while declaring remaining residents as terrorists. Attacks on civilian infrastructure, like bridges and health facilities, have already begun, legitimised by claims of Hezbollah use.
Urgent Calls for Sanctions and Arms Embargoes
The international community's response has been inadequate, with negotiations led by figures like French President Emmanuel Macron potentially serving as a smokescreen for Israel to stall ceasefires. Empty condemnations are insufficient; sanctions and arms embargoes are needed to impede Israel's aggression. The world failed to prevent genocide in Gaza, and without immediate action, it risks repeating the same mistakes in Lebanon, leaving millions at risk amidst escalating violence and humanitarian crises.
