The opening weeks of the renewed Middle East conflict saw the United States and Israel holding the initiative, but that advantage appears to be slipping as Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz sends shockwaves through the global economy.
Iranian officials now speak with confidence, with Mohsen Rezaee of the Revolutionary Guards stating that “the end of the war is in our hands” and calling for US withdrawal from the Gulf. This marks a stark contrast to three weeks ago, when the conflict began with a surprise Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
US and Israeli forces have demonstrated overwhelming conventional superiority, striking thousands of targets across Iran with impunity. Yet the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas passes, has sent oil prices soaring and placed domestic and international pressure on President Donald Trump to end hostilities quickly.
Analysts are divided on who currently holds the initiative. Danny Orbach of the Hebrew University argues that Israel and the US still set the agenda, noting Iran is running out of missile launchers and escalated only as a desperate move. Peter Neumann of King’s College London disagrees, saying Iran has played a bad hand successfully and now has the initiative after the strait closure caught the US off guard.
Trump has called on other nations to send warships to help reopen the strait, but none have accepted, and analysts warn the task would be fraught with risk. The decision to reopen appears to rest with Tehran, where there is little evidence of willingness to ease global economic pressure.
