A new study from King's College London has found that the public in England and Wales overestimates how many minority ethnic people are convicted killers, as well as how many foreign national offenders there are. The research comes amid attempts by radical right parties to link offending to ethnicity and nationality to gain votes.
Survey findings on homicide perceptions
YouGov's survey of 1,800 people in England and Wales found that respondents thought 55% of convicted killers were from an ethnic minority, when the real figure is 35%. They also believed that only 45% of homicides were committed by white people, while the actual percentage is 64%.
Reform voters were furthest from the truth, believing that 70% of killers were from ethnic minorities – 10% more than voters of any other party. The academics who conducted the survey said that feelings about crime levels and who is to blame reflect people's emotions rather than the facts.
Foreign national offender estimates
Public estimates of foreign national offenders show why crime could be fertile ground for the far right. Survey respondents thought foreign national offenders comprised 25% of the prison population, but the real figure is 12%. They also overestimated the number of foreigners committing sexual offences, believing it to be 30%, while the actual figure is half that at 15%.
Again, Reform voters' perceptions were the most inaccurate, with them believing that 50% of sexual offences were committed by foreign nationals – 20% higher than those who identified as Conservative supporters in the survey.
Explaining misperceptions
Prof Bobby Duffy of King's College said: “There are two buckets of explanations for our misperceptions: how we think and what we’re told.” He noted that misperceptions are partly driven by what people are worried about, and that cause and effect run in both directions, with people inflating the scale of an issue if they are concerned about it.
Duffy added: “Reform supporters’ higher concern about immigration and diversity … will mean they’re more likely to give attention and weight to things they see that fit with that view, including crimes being committed by those groups. On what we’re told, they’re also more likely to be seeing media, social media and political communications that emphasise those examples.”
Two-tier justice perceptions
The survey also showed that claims of two-tier justice – meaning ethnic minorities have an easier time – are taking hold, despite all evidence to the contrary. It found that 52% thought ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently for crimes, with 29% believing they got more lenient sentences and 23% thinking they were sentenced more harshly.
Duffy said those who believed two-tier justice claims were more likely to question the system and call for radical change. “This is important for trust and faith in the system, which is an issue particularly when it’s not justified by the reality,” he said. “We may end up taking actions that are not necessary or effective.”
Duffy also highlighted that respondents' views coincided more with people their own age rather than their own ethnicity. “For example, gen Z puts the white share of homicide convictions at 58%, whereas baby boomers put it at 35%. But white and non-white respondents give almost identical answers,” he said.
The survey also found that people overestimated the number of crime victims. The public's median guess was 27%, far higher than the real figure of 9.7% who had personally experienced crime between 2024 and 2025. Duffy said: “Our misperceptions are more of a general emotional reaction than careful study of the facts – we’re sending messages about what’s worrying us.”
