The arrest of Daniel Kinahan could spark a resurgence in brutal violence between Scotland's two warring criminal families, a former police chief has warned.
The Irishman faced a Dublin court on Sunday after being extradited from Dubai. His family's cartel is alleged to have raked in nearly £1billion over the years from drug trafficking and organised crime. They are also believed to have strong ties with the Glasgow-based Lyons crime family.
The Lyons have been embroiled in a deadly feud with another Glasgow family, the Daniels, for more than 25 years. Graeme Pearson, former Director General of the Scottish Crime and Drugs Enforcement Agency, claims Kinahan's arrest will have sent shockwaves through the criminal underworld in Scotland and beyond, reports the Daily Record.
Chaos and Turbulence in the Underworld
Pearson said: "It creates turbulence, bordering on chaos. It depends on how the various parties on the outside respond to his arrival in Ireland. Because the business of organised crime particularly when it comes to guns and drugs must go on. Someone is going to profit from it."
Pearson fears we could see an escalation in violence between the Lyons and Daniels families as they and other organised crime groups - both domestically and internationally - vie to fill the void. During their prolonged dispute, there have been four murders, most recently a double fatal shooting of Eddie Lyons jnr and key Lyons associate Ross Monaghan in a bar in Fuengirola in Spain in May last year.
Risk of Escalating Violence
He added: "When you have new arrangements coming into play you have the threat that somebody will step up and say I am going to be the top dog now and the only way you can do that is by using extreme violence.
"The profits are so huge and now there is an opportunity for change. There will be people sitting on the margins saying this is my time and that is when it becomes very dangerous.
"Nobody wants to have it as it was. They all want to have it better. With more profit. Somebody needs to run what was previously overseen by the Kinahans and it depends on who these people are and whether or not new partnerships can be delivered.
"It also depends whether or not Police Scotland, the National Crime Agency and others can keep a lid on the groups here in Scotland."
Uncertainty and Potential for Change
Pearson continued: "Deals need to be concluded, moneys need to be paid and drugs need to be delivered. The confidence to make sure that happens using the regime that existed previously - that is up in the air now."
Kinahan and other family members are also wanted by the US Treasury Department who have compared their alleged cartel to criminal organisations such as Italy's Camorra, Mexico's Los Zetas and Japan's Yakuza.
Pearson added: "If Police Scotland and the National Crime Agency can maintain the pressure they have over the last couple of years there is less opportunity for the violence to spread to Scotland.
"Now is the time for them to be aware and vigilant. I would imagine that they already have plans in place."
Kinahan was detained in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in April. He challenged the extradition order over the past few months but his efforts proved unsuccessful.
The Lyons' links with the Kinahans stretch back more than a decade and are thought to have been established initially in Marbella in the Costa del Sol and subsequently Dubai in the UAE. The leader of the Lyons crime organisation Steven Lyons is reported to have formed that alliance after relocating abroad following an assassination attempt in Glasgow in 2006.
That partnership is thought to have provided the Lyons with the advantage in their prolonged territorial conflict with the Daniels. Steven Lyons is presently incarcerated in a Spanish jail, awaiting trial on charges of money laundering after being deported from Bali and subsequently extradited from Holland earlier this year.
A source from the criminal underworld revealed: "Some people believe that the arrest of Kinahan will now give the Daniel feud the upper hand in their feud with the Lyons leading in turn to more violence.
"It is also possible that others whose names are less well known are waiting in the wings to takeover in Scotland and elsewhere.
"One thing is certain a vacuum has been created in the criminal underworld and it will be interesting to see who fills it."
