Two years after Keir Starmer's government tweaked sentencing rules to ease prison overcrowding, the crisis has returned. Now, as Andy Burnham faces the latest phase, he's proposing early release for more women prisoners and tackling indefinite IPP sentences. But the deeper question remains: who is really to blame?
Crime down, prison population up
In 1993, the prison population for England and Wales was 44,000. By 2012, it had almost doubled to 87,000, and it's still hovering around that number today. Yet crime has not increased — it has fallen dramatically.
According to the Crime Survey of England and Wales, headline crime peaked at 19,786 incidents in 1995 and has been on a clear downward trend since. The most recent stats from March this year show 9,615 incidents. Excluding fraud and computer misuse, which were less prevalent in 1995, the figure drops to 4,333 — less than a quarter of the 1995 level.
Sentencing changes at fault
The Independent Sentencing Review, commissioned by Labour after prisons nearly collapsed, found a significant decline in non-custodial sentences like community service since 2010, and a significant increase in the length of average custodial sentences.
The review says this is "not the consequence of a considered strategy as the most effective measure to reduce crime." Instead, "sentencing has focused disproportionately on punishment," with politicians and media promoting the idea that "the only form of punishment that counts is imprisonment."
The Sentencing Act 2026 aims to reverse some trends, but the broader attitude is harder to shift. Breaking out of the prison crisis loop requires rethinking what we want from the justice system and why it exists.
