The United States has warned Poland that Russia is planning an armed provocation against Polish territory within months to test NATO's resolve, according to Polish media outlet Onet. The alleged plot could involve drone or missile strikes on critical infrastructure or, in a more extreme scenario, a hybrid attack by Russian or Belarusian troops crossing the border.
Details of the Alleged Plot
Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told Onet that Washington has systematically informed Warsaw about Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO's eastern flank. The US assessment suggests that Moscow aims to escalate tensions and halt Western military and financial support for Ukraine. Last month, allies collectively pledged $4bn in military aid to Ukraine.
Polish intelligence sources outlined several scenarios, including drone attacks on critical infrastructure or simulated air strikes. The most extreme scenario would involve a hybrid attack in the border region by Russian or Belarusian troops, which Russia could present as a mistake—such as troops accidentally crossing into Polish territory due to a GPS failure.
Moscow's Expected Demands
Polish sources told Onet that Russia hopes Poland, under US pressure, would negotiate rather than respond with force. This could allow Moscow to demand an end to Western support for Ukraine in exchange for withdrawing from Polish territory. An ambassador to one of Poland's NATO allies and a member of the Polish defence ministry confirmed a serious risk of provocation in Poland or the Baltic states.
Broader Context of Russian Activity
A Baltic security source told The Telegraph that such plans are under discussion in Moscow. An attack could be launched from Kaliningrad, Russia's Baltic enclave bordering Poland, or from Belarus. This follows a report by the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) on Thursday, which said Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe, monitoring military sites and testing NATO air defences.
The IISS report mapped 144 suspected drone sightings across Europe between 2024 and 2026, including in NATO members Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, the UK, and Denmark. The sightings peaked in late 2025, forcing temporary closures of several European airports, including in Germany, Spain, and Denmark. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the incidents as the "most serious attack on Danish critical infrastructure to date."
