Britain is dangerously unprepared for a growing Russian threat, the former chairman of the Commons Defence Committee has warned. Tobias Ellwood told the Express all indicators are moving in the wrong direction, adding the UK is failing to respond to an increasingly dangerous world, despite mounting threats ranging from cyberattacks and sabotage to espionage and attacks on critical infrastructure.
Every indicator moving in the wrong direction
Mr Ellwood said: “I'm worrying that the needle's moving, and when you place all the factors together, every single indicator is moving in the wrong direction.” He pointed to a combination of geopolitical and operational developments which he said should be setting alarm bells ringing in Westminster.
Mr Ellwood said: “The bond between our adversary and our closest security ally is strengthening.” He said Britain was also becoming more directly involved in supporting Ukraine, including supplying Storm Shadow missiles and helping it develop its own weapons.
British involvement increasingly visible to Moscow
He continued: “They're very good at taking something, tweaking it, putting it into a sausage machine, and spitting something out that is more potent than what we started with.” He warned that British involvement in Ukraine was increasingly visible to Moscow.
Mr Ellwood said: “But that's got British flags written all over it.” He also highlighted the departure of the Russian ambassador and Russia’s decision to share its intelligence and data on Britain. Mr Ellwood said: “Putin will want to respond and react, and he has a place to do so.”
Grey area of hostile activity
The former minister said the UK was already seeing the consequences of a world in which hostile activity increasingly falls below the threshold of open warfare. He pointed to the major cyberattack on Jaguar Land Rover, explaining: “That was very real. That cost the taxpayer a billion pounds to shore up the company and make sure it didn't go bust, and that was clearly from Russia.”
He said Britain needed to understand that Moscow did not necessarily need to launch a conventional military attack to cause serious damage. Mr Ellwood said: “This is a lovely grey area that Putin has become a specialist at.” According to Mr Ellwood, Russia could exploit Britain through a combination of disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage, coercion and potentially poisoning.
Warning over Novichok-type incident
Mr Ellwood said: “It's also a lot cheaper to interfere with our economy and get us arguing with each other. That can be done through disinformation, the internet, cyberattacks, and so forth, alongside the occasional act of sabotage, coercion, and probably poisoning too.”
He delivered a particularly chilling warning over the possibility of another Novichok-type incident. He said: “I mean, it's horrible to say this, but I think it's only a matter of time before a dignitary, a personality, or someone else is targeted in another Novichok-type situation.”
He also warned that Britain was vulnerable because of its openness, arguing that hostile states could use people with no obvious connection to foreign intelligence services to carry out attacks. Mr Ellwood said: “That's the type of warfare we're talking about, and we are not ready for it. We're not geared for it at all.”
He said Britain’s economic and social openness could actually make it easier for hostile powers to operate. Mr Ellwood said: “The openness of our entire economy, our way of life, and our community actually lends itself to that sort of attack.”
Russian operatives in Britain
He also claimed there were “plenty” of Russian operatives and people acting on Moscow’s behalf in Britain, including individuals renting properties overlooking the UK’s nuclear submarine base in Scotland and monitoring vessels. Mr Ellwood said: “So there's an awful lot of data and intelligence collection done by people over here who seem innocent, but are actually very much on the Russian side.”
He argued that Britain had become complacent since the Cold War while Russia’s intelligence machine had continued operating and "as a result, our ability to conduct this kind of tradecraft has diminished". He issued an uncompromising verdict on the UK’s readiness to deal with the threat. Mr Ellwood said: “The world is getting more dangerous, and we've still got our heads in the sand.”
